Berenberg Expects Fresnillo to Hit FY26 Silver, Gold Production Guidance

03:37 AM EDT, 10/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg expects Fresnillo (FRES.L) to meet its full-year 2026 silver and gold production guidance in the fourth quarter after the mining company published its third-quarter output. "Heading into Q4, we believe that the company is on track to meet guidance of 42-46.5moz of silver and 500-550koz of gold. Additionally, we think that resilient base metal volumes into Q4 - coming in at 16kt of lead (versus our 14kt estimate) and 25kt of zinc (versus our 24kt estimate) in Q3 - could result in full-year production beating guidance (of 54-59kt and 85-95kt, respectively)," analysts said Thursday. The research firm noted that group attributable silver production for the third quarter fell short of expectations at 10.3 million ounces, compared with Berenberg's forecast of 11.8 million ounces and the consensus estimate of 11.1 million ounces, mainly due to reduced ore grades across operations and lower processing volumes at Fresnillo Mexico. On the flip side, gold volumes were 135,053 ounces versus analysts' estimate of 135,000 ounces. Against this backdrop, Berenberg revised its forecasts as part of a model update, lowering its 2026 and 2027 sales, EBIT and EPS assumptions while reiterating its price target of 28 pounds sterling. "We expect gold and silver prices to support strong FCF generation over the medium term (with a sizeable net-cash position of USD2.6bn by 2027E, we expect); however, with limited near-term growth, we remain Hold-rated," according to the report.