China Automobile Dealers Association: In the first half of October, the passenger car market ushered in the National Day holiday, and the heat is expected to slow down in the second half of the month

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on October 23, the China Automobile Dealers Association released the semi-monthly passenger car market report for October 2026. In the first half of October, the passenger car market ushered in high prices during the National Day holiday. The National Day holiday was compounded by regional auto shows, and a new round of car purchase subsidies continued to be implemented in many places. Policy dividends resonated with the effects of major local auto shows to activate early intended demand. Entering the fourth quarter, car companies began a year-end impulse model, and the pace of sales gradually accelerated. With the 11th long holiday, consumer demand is concentrated, and market popularity is expected to decline somewhat in the second half of October.

Based on the dealer's feedback on customer attraction, sales volume, and inventory biweekly report data, it can be seen that:

The number of visitors attracted in the first half of October increased by 17.3% compared to the same period in September, and increased by 5.4% compared to the second half of September. The number of visitors to the store was clearly boosted in the first half of October. On the one hand, large demand for car viewing was postponed until the National Day holiday in late September due to the short interval between Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays; on the other hand, many places concentrated on holding large-scale auto shows during the National Day holiday, compounded the continuation of local consumer promotion subsidies, and increased dealer promotions, attracting a large number of consumers to watch and test drive cars, driving a significant increase in passenger traffic. After entering the second half of October, the number of visitors to the store is expected to fall back to normal levels as the holiday dividends subside.

Orders in the first half of October increased by 45.8% compared to the same period in September and 5.3% compared to the second half of September. The increase in orders in the first half of October increased significantly compared to the same period in September: during the National Day Auto Show, various discounts and benefits were released centrally, and car purchase support measures were simultaneously launched in Henan, Tianjin, Nanjing, Xining and other places. Subsidy policies were combined with limited-time brand discounts, effectively leveraging the waiters that had settled in the early stages to place orders. The centralized holiday marketing scenario reduces consumer price comparison costs, promotes intention transformation, and drives a significant increase in order growth. Entering the second half of the month, there was no support for similar large-scale events, and it is expected that the increase in new orders will narrow somewhat.

Sales in the first half of October increased by 6.7% compared to the same period in September, and decreased by 37.0% from the second half of September. Due to the National Day holiday, there was a phased lag in the pace of conversion of orders to transactions, which delayed the confirmation of retail data to a certain extent. Entering the second half of the month, the intended orders locked in the early holidays will gradually be delivered; as the year-end impulse of superimposed car companies continues to advance, stores will speed up the pace of delivery, which will drive the steady release of deliveries in the second half of October. However, since core traffic is concentrated in the first half of the month's holiday window, there are no new centralized customer acquisition scenarios, and market popularity gradually declined; however, order reserves accumulated in the first half of the month can support delivery over the next period of time.

Inventory volume for the first half of October decreased by 3.5% compared to the end of September. Overall, in the first half of October, dealers relied on concentrated holiday transactions, which led to a drop in inventory levels in the mid-October period compared to the end of September.

Expectations for the passenger car market in October:

In October, after Golden Nine, Silver Ten, passenger car sales in that month were highly dependent on the National Day holiday. The rise was concentrated in the first half of the month, and the heat slowed down in the second half of the month. Local subsidy policies, dealer promotions and major local auto shows resonance led to a sharp increase in passenger traffic and orders in the first half of October. Although the main logic of dealer impulse remained unchanged at the end of the year, it was difficult for the market to maintain its high popularity in the second half of the month after the concentrated release of this round of increments. Overall, the October market showed only a slight increase compared to September.

Overall, it is estimated that passenger car terminal sales will be around 1.7 million units for the month of October.