Canadian Stock Market Today: TSX Futures Edge Lower On Energy Inflation And Retail Focus

The Morning Bull - Canadian Market Morning Update Friday, 23 Oct 2026

Canadian equities look set for a cautious open, with sentiment dominated by a fresh inflation shock from the commodity complex rather than offshore data. Investors are treating the move as a warning on domestic price pressure.

Canada’s Raw Materials Price Index jumped 4.8% in September, powered by a 14.4% surge in crude energy products. Producer prices rose 2.0% over the month. Together, these releases flag a stronger pipeline of costs feeding into future inflation gauges.

Higher input prices often feed into borrowing costs as rate expectations adjust. That can squeeze margins for manufacturers and other cost heavy businesses if they struggle to pass on higher energy and materials costs, especially with new home prices slipping 0.2%.

The immediate question is whether upcoming Canadian retail sales later today confirm resilient demand or show consumers already under strain. That single data point could either reinforce the inflation risk narrative or give investors more confidence that pricing pressure may be absorbed.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Thomson Reuters (TRI)

Thomson Reuters just rolled out CoCounsel Tax, Audit & Accounting, a next generation AI platform aimed at professional users. The tool is built to anchor every calculation in the relevant rule book and show how each answer is produced. Watch how quickly large firms adopt it and whether management starts tying the product to revenue or subscription metrics.

Mullen Group (MTL)

Mullen Group reported record quarterly revenue and operating income before depreciation and amortization across all segments for the period to September 30, 2026. Management points to internal expansion, acquisitions, and higher fuel surcharges as key drivers. Pay attention to how future updates describe demand tied to Nation Building Projects and any further acquisition activity.

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD)

Alimentation Couche-Tard agreed to buy retail assets from Irving Oil in Quebec and Ontario. The deal adds more stores and fuel outlets to the network, which puts attention on future volume trends and fuel margins. Investors will be watching the next results or transaction update for detail on integration costs and any early contribution from the acquired locations.

Top Movers

• FirstService (TSX:FSV) jumped 7.41% after Q3 results showed 6% revenue growth and management reaffirmed full year confidence.
• Constellation Software (TSX:CSU) gained 5.33% as investors responded to the appointment of a new Chief AI Officer.
• WSP Global (TSX:WSP) rose 4.94% following fresh attention on environmental services revenue and commentary highlighting the stock as undervalued.

Top Losers

• Celestica (TSX:CLS) fell 12.04% as investors reacted to concerns about funding availability for future AI infrastructure spending.
• Hemlo Mining (TSX:HMMC) declined 11.42% after fresh Q3 operating data highlighted production challenges linked to an electrical substation outage.
• Americas Gold and Silver (TSX:USA) fell 11.29% following recent production figures and ahead of the next quarterly earnings release in November.

On The Radar

Canadian trading over the next few sessions revolves around retail demand, central bank decisions, and a heavy slate of Q3 earnings from energy, materials, and transport stocks.

• Canada Retail Sales MoM Final, Fri 23 Oct. August sales carry a consensus call of 1.3% after a 0.7% decline, so a weaker print would underline household strain and ease pressure on rate expectations after this week’s materials-led inflation surprise.
• Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM, Fri 23 Oct. The core August figure is forecast at 0.9% after a 0.7% drop, and anything well below that would point to softer discretionary spending and could weigh on Canadian bank and consumer-linked stocks.
• Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision, Wed 28 Oct. Markets are looking for a move to 2.5% from 2.25%, so any different outcome or tone in the Monetary Policy Report would directly affect borrowing costs, rate-sensitive equities, and the Canadian dollar.
• Kinross Gold, Wed 28 Oct. Q3 results after the close will put the focus on cash costs and margins from its gold operations, which matter for how investors treat the wider Canadian precious metals group after recent production headlines elsewhere.
• Teck Resources, Thu 29 Oct. Pre-market Q3 numbers will shine a light on realized prices and unit costs in its coal and base metals businesses, key for sentiment across Canadian miners that are highly exposed to global commodity demand.

Sector & Industry Watch

Energy: Oil strength offsets cost squeeze

Energy has inched higher over the past week, with Oil and Gas tracking that move as firmer crude prices show up in sector returns. The jump in Canada’s raw materials inflation that came mostly from energy improves revenue potential for producers while also lifting fuel surcharges for transport groups such as Mullen Group.

The key swing factor now is how early November Q3 reports from large Canadian Oil and Gas stocks talk about spending plans and payouts against this higher price and cost backdrop.

Materials: Miners struggle with hot input prices

Materials have retreated sharply over the last seven days, with Metals and Mining sliding even more as the sector works through weaker recent performance. The latest producer price and raw material inflation data show energy and input costs running hot, which can pressure budgets for gold, copper, lithium, and potash projects tied to companies such as Imperial Metals and E3 Lithium.

The next checkpoint is the coming wave of Q3 production and earnings releases flagged across Canadian miners like Fortuna Mining and Discovery Mining, since any change in cost guidance or development timelines can quickly move this slice of a diversified portfolio.

Real Estate: Rate relief meets softer housing data

Real Estate has bounced over the past week, although 1 year returns remain weaker than the broader Canadian Market. Higher borrowing costs still weigh on REITs and developers, because more interest expense leaves less room for distributions and new projects, and that now lines up with September data showing new home prices slipping 0.2% and land values declining 0.9%.

For property linked holdings, focus falls on how listed vehicles such as RioCan, Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, and FirstService describe occupancy, rents, and refinancing when they next update investors, since those details tie directly into income stability.

Financials: Banks balance rate income and consumer strain

Financials have edged higher over the last seven days, with Banks still showing firm 1 year gains after recent results from Toronto Dominion Bank highlighted strong earnings in core Canadian operations. Higher rates support loan and deposit income for firms such as TD, RBC, Manulife, and Sun Life, although steeper mortgage and card payments can eventually pressure household budgets.

The main domestic data point for this group is today’s Canadian retail sales report, which gives a clearer read on how consumer spending, credit card volumes, and small business receipts are holding up against higher borrowing costs.

Tech: AI headlines contrast with weak chip trend

Tech has slipped over the past week, while Semiconductors have fallen much more over the same period and over the year to date. Company news still points to demand for AI and software, from Thomson Reuters rolling out its CoCounsel platform to SalesCloser’s patent filing on multi agent call technology and TD’s Credit Assist tool in commercial banking.

The catalyst that matters most now is the upcoming Canadian Tech earnings season, where commentary on IT and AI budgets from software and platform providers will show whether current share price pressure lines up with business conditions or has run ahead of them.

Identify The Next Market Leaders

If the jump in Canada’s raw materials and energy costs is the part of today’s brief that matters most to you, start with this list of list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (7 results)

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