New Jersey Resources (NJR) Keeps Beating Earnings, Is It Still A Bargain?
New Jersey Resources (NJR) is back in focus after recent coverage highlighted a pattern of earnings beats, where the utility has topped forecasts and now carries a positive Earnings ESP along with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
The recent earnings optimism is landing on a stock that has already seen the share price climb 16.6% year to date to US$53.63, even though the 90 day share price return is down 10.7%. Meanwhile, the 5 year total shareholder return of 70.8% points to momentum that has built over a longer horizon.
Scan beyond New Jersey Resources and compare how other regulated utilities with steady earnings surprises stack up using our hand picked 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores list.
Bulls point to New Jersey Resources beating forecasts and a 16.6% year to date climb, while bears highlight the recent 10.7% pullback and valuation risk. Which story do the numbers actually support next on price?
Most Popular New Jersey Resources Narrative: 10% Undervalued
On the most followed narrative, New Jersey Resources screens as undervalued, with a fair value of about $59.86 against the recent $53.63 close and a discount rate of 7.24% anchoring that view.
Utility-led capital investment at New Jersey Resources is guided by a 2026 to 2030 plan of about US$4.8b to US$5.2b. More than 60% is directed to New Jersey Natural Gas, with an associated filing that seeks to recover roughly US$950m of recent infrastructure spending while still proposing an 8.9% cut to typical winter bills. Together, these factors point to potential growth in regulated revenue with an explicit focus on bill affordability that can support long term earnings stability.
See why 4 investors see New Jersey Resources as 10% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $59.86 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, this New Jersey Resources narrative can crack if policy shifts hit traditional gas usage harder than expected or if Clean Energy Ventures remains slower to turn profitable.
Find out about the key risks to this New Jersey Resources narrative.
Another View: SWS DCF Puts New Jersey Resources In A Different Light
The analyst narrative frames New Jersey Resources as undervalued around $59.86, yet the SWS DCF model tells a tougher story. On that cash flow lens, NJR at $53.63 screens well above an estimated future cash flow value of about $13.07, which points to valuation risk rather than a margin of safety. That kind of gap raises a simple question for investors: Which lens earns more of your trust, earnings multiples or long range cash flows?
Before leaning on either view, it helps to see how this cash flow approach is built and what would need to change for the gap to narrow. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out New Jersey Resources for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 29 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Signals on New Jersey Resources are mixed so far. If you want a clearer view quickly, weigh the upside against the red flags by checking the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
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