Eni (BIT:ENI) Stock Rallies As Q3 Earnings Raise Forecast Questions
Eni stock heads into this Q3 2026 report with real momentum, up roughly 20% over the past three months and closing today at €27.65. Traders reacted to a headline that is hard to shrug off. Net income from the quarter came in at €1.45b and sat alongside €26.0b of revenue, numbers that speak directly to the firepower of its oil and gas engine.
In the short term, that price move looks punchy. Over a multi year lens, the more important question is how this earnings power lines up with forecasts calling for earnings and revenue to decline, and what that implies for a stock trading near its modelled fair value.
Love Eni's earnings firepower but concerned about forecasts pointing to weaker profit and sales ahead? You can screen for companies that combine strong current results with more resilient outlooks using the 221 resilient stocks with low risk scores.
Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
- Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €26,035m vs. €20,546m (up about 27%)
- Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €1,448m vs. €803m (up about 80%)
- Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €0.50 vs. €0.27 (up about 88%)
- Total Oil Equivalent Production (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): 163.618 MMboe vs. 159.796 MMboe (up about 2%)
Eni hiked buybacks and added a special dividend after Q3. Ask Charlie what Eni’s bigger cash return really signals.
Evaluating Eni’s LNG And New Energy Milestones
The bullish story hinges on Eni turning LNG build out and new energy platforms into steadier earnings power, not just headline growth.
"The combination with Petronas in Indonesia and Malaysia, alongside the Argentina LNG project with YPF and XRG, gives Eni a larger gas and LNG platform tied to existing infrastructure and growing demand for reliable gas supply, which can support medium term production volumes and cash flow visibility."
Q3 delivery lines up with that ambition. Gas and LNG EBIT is now guided to about €1.5b for 2026, supported by fresh LNG contracts from Indonesia and Cyprus and upgraded production growth of 6 to 7%, which together point to early progress on the LNG scale up described in the narrative.
One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says Eni should trade.
Eni’s Project Risk: Strong Quarter, Execution Gaps Persist
Bears worry that Eni’s growth engine leans too hard on complex long dated projects that could slip or overrun.
"Heavy reliance on rapid upstream project delivery, including Congo LNG, Agogo and multiple FIDs, could become a drag if execution in newer or more complex regions encounters delays or cost pressure."
Q3 results show strong exploration, higher production guidance and solid cash generation. However, several key LNG options remain pre FID or in early design. Argentina LNG is still targeting a decision by end 2026 and Mozambique’s third FLNG is only in pre FEED. The earnings beat does not yet prove these heavier projects are on time or on budget.
Hunt For Dislocated Earnings Power
Eni just showed how a powerful earnings print can reset expectations without fully settling the longer term debate. The real opportunity is spotting stocks that could be undervalued before the market closes that gap.
- Company 1 - 42% below our estimate - target utility scale developers needing storage, inverters and software to keep solar projects progressing through grid bottlenecks.
- Company 2 - 45% below our estimate - expand sterile injectable capacity so drugmakers can outsource complex ISM based formulations and rely on an integrated heparin supply chain.
- Company 3 - 32% below our estimate - advance permits and pre-stripping work so long delayed copper and polymetallic projects can begin feeding a tighter concentrate market.
Three companies from the same screener. Open every one of the 195 undervalued companies on it →
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com