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    How Investors May Respond To Old National Bancorp Stock After Strong Earnings Guidance

    Simply Wall St·10/24/2026 05:36:33
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    • Old National Bancorp reported Q3 2026 net income of US$253.99 million and diluted EPS from continuing operations of US$0.66, alongside full year 2026 guidance calling for EPS growth above 15%.
    • The bank completed US$222.91 million of share repurchases under its February 2026 authorization while recording Q3 net charge offs of US$34.09 million, highlighting both active capital returns and ongoing credit costs.
    • The focus now is on how Old National Bancorp's double digit 2026 EPS growth guidance may reshape its broader investment narrative from here.

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    Old National Bancorp Investment Narrative Recap

    For Old National Bancorp, the core belief is that its commercial and wealth pipelines, plus a more fee rich mix, can keep supporting earnings even as competition in lending stays intense. The new guidance for EPS growth above 15% in 2026 leans on that operational story and puts more attention on execution around repricing and loan growth.

    The most important near term catalyst is how efficiently Old National Bancorp turns those record pipelines and repricing opportunities into net interest income without eroding its roughly 3.5% margin. Rising net charge offs to US$34.09 million underline the key risk. Credit costs and any need to retain more capital could restrain EPS progress.

    The guidance for EPS growth exceeding 15% in 2026 is the clearest recent signal for investors to focus on. It ties directly into earlier commentary about roughly US$8b of fixed rate loans and securities set to reprice at higher yields, plus an expected 6% to 8% loan growth rate. It effectively makes operational follow through the main near term yardstick.

    That same outlook also sharpens the risk if competition in commercial real estate and broader lending forces Old National Bancorp to sacrifice spread to protect volumes. With payout ratios already around 60% to 65% and active buybacks completed at US$222.91 million, any credit or growth shock that pulls capital back from repurchases could weigh on per share earnings progress.

    Old National Bancorp's analyst narrative points to revenue of US$3.4b and earnings of US$1.2b by 2029, based on an assumed 8.3% yearly revenue growth rate. That earnings outlook implies an increase of about US$330m from current earnings of US$870.1m.

    Uncover why Old National Bancorp's fair value indicates a 16% potential upside to its current price, which could narrow quickly as investors reassess Old National Bancorp.

    NasdaqGS:ONB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NasdaqGS:ONB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Fair value estimates for Old National Bancorp from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$29.30 to about US$53 across 2 separate forecasts, so you are seeing both mild and much richer implied pricing. When you set that against rising net charge offs and heavy capital returns, you get a reminder that opinions can vary widely, so it is worth exploring several competing viewpoints before deciding how these 2026 EPS targets fit your own expectations.

    Explore another Old National Bancorp fair value estimate, including one that suggests as much as 109% upside from the current price!

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