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    Learn Why The Bull Case For McDonalds Stock Could Change Following The NEXT Plan

    Simply Wall St·10/24/2026 10:34:12
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    • McDonald's has outlined a NEXT plan that includes long term support for franchisees, investments in technology and equipment, and a focus on international markets alongside efforts to restore U.S. value execution.
    • The push to maintain control over tokenized trading of its shares on the OKX ICE venue underscores how McDonald's is trying to manage digital market risks while pursuing operational upgrades aimed at higher efficiency.
    • This article will examine how McDonald's investment narrative evolves as the NEXT plan targets franchise support, technology spending and operational efficiency.
    Spot similar stories where big brands are retooling their business models by scanning our hand picked 21 high quality undiscovered gems that could be quietly setting up their next chapter.

    McDonald's Investment Narrative Recap

    To own McDonald's, you need to believe the restaurant system can keep turning steady traffic, pricing and digital engagement into resilient cash flows, even if headline growth stays modest. The key near term swing factor is whether value offers and marketing can re energise U.S. comparable sales after the softer Q2 2026 prints and weak July comps.

    The biggest current risk sits with low income guests pulling back, at the same time as beef, labor and build costs pressure store level profit. The OKX tokenized trading dispute looks more like a governance and market structure issue. It does not materially change the near term earnings drivers around value, input costs and franchise health.

    The most relevant announcement here is McDonald's objection to tokenized trading of its shares on the OKX ICE venue without issuer consent. That move ties directly into how tightly the company wants its equity to trade in regulated channels while it works on digital ordering, loyalty and restaurant level technology that feed into the core operating story.

    For you, the link back to catalysts is practical. Management is trying to contain potential market structure risks on the financial side while pushing the NEXT plan that targets a 50% plus operating margin by 2030, expanded restaurant count and unified digital systems. Execution on value menus and international expansion still matters far more to the earnings path than how tokenized products trade.

    What The McDonald's Consensus Numbers Assume

    Consensus forecasts for McDonald's hinge on a relatively steady top line paired with firmer profitability. Analysts are working with revenue that is expected to stay fairly flat over the next three years while profit margins move from 31.7% today to 35.8% by around 2029. That combination underpins forecasts that earnings could reach US$10.2b in 2029 compared with earnings today of US$8.8b, with some on the more optimistic side modeling as much as US$11.5b.

    For those projections to line up with current price targets, the stock would need to trade on a P/E of 26.3x those 2029 earnings, versus about 18.7x today and above the 18.9x level quoted for the wider US Hospitality group. That implies a richer multiple on the back of higher margins and continued buybacks, with analysts assuming the share count declines around 0.63% each year over the next three years. The Simply Wall St framework references a 9.21% discount rate to translate those future cash flows into today’s value. This provides a sense of the hurdle rate implied in the models rather than a promise of what McDonald's stock will return.

    McDonald's narrative projects US$28.5b revenue and US$10.2b earnings by 2029, with analysts assuming broadly flat yearly revenue growth and about a US$1.4b earnings increase from US$8.8b today.

    Uncover why McDonald's fair value indicates a 20% potential upside to its current price, which could narrow quickly.

    NYSE:MCD 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:MCD 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Seven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster between about US$225 and US$297, which shows how far apart private investors can be on McDonald's worth. When you layer that against risks around U.S. traffic softness and inflation pressure, plus the tokenized trading pushback, you are looking at very different potential paths. Explore those competing views before leaning on any single narrative.

    Explore 6 other McDonald's fair value estimates, including one that suggests as much as 20% potential upside from the current price.

    Form Your Own Verdict

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so consider your own analysis carefully.

    Looking For More Ideas Beyond McDonald's?

    If McDonald's has sharpened your sense of what a resilient business can look like, it can help to compare it with other companies that match your own risk, income and quality preferences. The Simply Wall St Screener can narrow that field fast so you spend more time weighing narratives and less time trawling tickers.