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    Learn Why The Bull Case For Equifax Stock Could Change Following Strong Third Quarter Earnings

    Simply Wall St·10/24/2026 23:38:03
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    • Equifax reported third quarter 2026 revenue of US$1.69b and net income of US$211.7m, with earnings per share higher than a year earlier, while trimming full year sales guidance on weaker US mortgage activity.
    • The firm is leaning on AI driven cost controls, open banking partnerships and verification products such as Mortgage Ultimate and Dynamic Pay Data to support margins and reduce reliance on cyclical mortgage volumes.
    • Now the focus turns to how Equifax's margin gains from AI and automation could reshape the longer term investment narrative around earnings quality.
    Spot 27 high quality undervalued stocks where AI, automation and data-heavy models are already baked into the story rather than relying on a single mortgage exposed player like Equifax.

    Equifax Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Equifax, you need to believe the business can keep shifting its mix toward data rich verification, AI driven productivity and cloud delivery so earnings rely less on mortgage cycles. The Q3 report fits that story. Sales reached US$1.69b with net income of US$211.7m, and margins benefited from automation efforts.

    The short term swing factor still looks like U.S. mortgage activity. Management cut full year revenue guidance to a range of US$6.646b to US$6.676b as mortgage volumes softened, which keeps that exposure front and center for now. Litigation, regulatory scrutiny and a high debt load remain meaningful background risks.

    The open banking expansion with Mastercard Open Finance slots directly into this earnings narrative. Equifax is layering consumer permissioned bank transaction data, cash flow analytics and repayment risk scores onto its traditional credit file, which deepens its role in lenders’ underwriting models and broadens use cases beyond pure mortgage checks.

    For you as an investor, that announcement speaks to the main catalyst. If lenders keep adopting products like Cashflow Analytics, Payment Risk Insights and Transaction Report, revenue can lean more on recurring verification and analytics, not just U.S. mortgage pulls. Execution risk is real though, especially integrating new data feeds, meeting regulatory expectations and converting product breadth into pricing power.

    Equifax's current analyst script points to revenues of US$8.1b and earnings of US$1.2b by 2029, built on an assumed 8.0% yearly revenue growth rate and a step up from about US$691.4m of earnings today to that US$1.2b figure, which is an increase of roughly US$508.6m.

    Uncover why Equifax's fair value indicates a 7% potential upside to its current price, which could narrow quickly.

    NYSE:EFX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    NYSE:EFX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Some of the most optimistic analysts frame the Mastercard Open Finance partnership as the real swing factor for Equifax, not mortgage cycles. Before this Q3 release, they were pencilling in about US$9.1b of revenue and US$1.4b of earnings by 2029. You can treat this as one possible storyline and compare it with your own assumptions as fresh information arrives.

    Explore 2 other Equifax fair value estimates, including one that suggests potential upside of up to 134% from the current price.

    Form Your Own Verdict

    Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so consider forming your own view.

    Looking for more ideas beyond Equifax?

    Once you have a view on Equifax, it can help to widen the lens and compare it with other companies that fit different risk and return profiles. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you filter by quality, balance sheet strength and income potential so you can build a watchlist that suits your own approach.