AI giant's IPO is expected to detonate a rebound, and BTC returns to $80,000

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin successfully recovered the key psychological threshold of $80,000 under the resonance of a strong rebound in the US technology sector, and there was a substantial recovery in market venture capital sentiment. This round of rise is not an isolated phenomenon, but is driven by intensive investment and financing activities in the field of artificial intelligence, which directly boosted the willingness to allocate risky assets. At the same time, long-term Bitcoin holders' holdings reduction has slowed significantly, providing basic support for further price increases.

Judging from specific market data, as of 8:14 a.m. on the 28th, BTC on the Korean digital asset trading platform Upbit closed at 177.85 million won, a slight increase of 0.82% from the price at 9 a.m. on the previous trading day.

Meanwhile, data from Binance, the world's leading exchange, shows that BTC has increased by 1.31% in the past 24 hours, and the latest price was $80,925.97. Mainstream altcoins also followed suit. The price of ETH rose 1.81% to $2351.03, and XRP increased even more significantly, reaching 3.13% to $1.3296.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the total amount of market liquidations in the past 24 hours was approximately US$145.69 million, of which BTC holdings were liquidated approximately US$33.75 million. Notably, the liquidation structure showed obvious short stop-loss characteristics: short positions were liquidated as high as 77.0%, amounting to US$25.97 million; while long positions were liquidated only 23.0%, amounting to US$7.78 million.

This situation where bears are laundered on a large scale is generally seen as a technical sign of a short-term trend reversal or acceleration in the rise.

The core macro variable driving this round of market reversals is the strong performance of US technology stocks. In the New York stock market on the same day, the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ.US) rose 1.3%, the biggest one-day gain in 5 weeks; the S&P 500 Index (SPY.US) rose 0.6% at the same time; the index reflecting the sentiment of the semiconductor industry (SOXX.US) surged 3.6%.

What is behind this round of technology stock market is a direct impetus for large-scale capital operations of artificial intelligence-related companies. The $25 billion worth of shares issued by Meta (META.US) attracted capital requirements equivalent to 5 times the amount raised, showing that institutional capital is extremely hungry for AI infrastructure. By deepening cooperation with OpenAI, Oracle has further raised market expectations for investment in AI's underlying technology.

Additionally, Antropic's upcoming initial public offering (IPO) was another big catalyst. The securities declaration documents submitted by it show that the company's operating cash flow and profits are positive. This financial health situation has largely mitigated market concerns that AI companies generally face the “high investment and low profit” dilemma. Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at John Trading, pointed out that after three weeks of suppression, AI-related stocks have finally rebounded. He stressed that despite some small and medium-sized enterprises facing operational difficulties, the fact that large AI companies can continue to make large-scale investments has effectively alleviated investors' concerns.

In addition to stock market factors, the fall in international oil prices has also provided additional psychological support for risky assets. As all parties work to ease military tension in the Persian Gulf region, the price of Brent crude oil has dropped below $114 per barrel. The fall in oil prices has directly allayed market concerns about a resurgence in inflation and created favorable conditions for the recovery of investment mentality.

However, market focus remains on the interest rate decision to be announced by the US Federal Reserve System on the 28th. Although the current market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep current interest rates unchanged, there is still a possibility of further interest rate hikes in the future. This uncertainty is still the sword of Damocles hanging over the top of the market.

Judging from the fundamentals of Bitcoin's own supply and demand, there has been a positive change in the behavior pattern of long-term holders. Data from blockchain analysis agency CryptoQuant revealed that the share of BTC in Bitcoin's total market capitalization (that is, the share of “realized market capitalization”) that has been held for more than 18 months has dropped from 26.98% on September 16 to 26.59% recently. The 'realized market capitalization' here refers to the total value of all held bitcoins calculated based on the price of each bitcoin when it was last traded. CryptoQuant analysis indicates that historically, when this ratio rises and then turns down, it often indicates that a strong upward momentum is about to begin.

Although the current level of change is small, it may have marked the early stages of a new upward cycle. Digital asset investment company Galaxy Digital (GLXY.US) has also observed a similar trend: the average monthly circulation of BTC, which has been held for more than 5 years, fell from 67,000 BTC in 2024 to 47,000 BTC last year, and fell further to around 34,000 BTC this year. Galaxy Digital (GLXY.US) analysts believe that the main resistance that limited Bitcoin's price rise in the past — large-scale sell-off by long-term holders — has clearly slowed down, and this supply-side austerity has created favorable structural conditions for future price increases.