Goldman Sachs: Raise the target price of Nuocheng Jianhua (09969) to HK$23.16 to the “buy” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that the total revenue for the third quarter of Nuocheng Jianhua (09969) was higher than the forecast. The bank raised the target price of H shares for 12 months from HK$22.71 to HK$23.16, and the target price for A-shares of 688428.SH was raised from RMB 37.93 to RMB 38.68, with a rating of “buy.”

Nuochengjianhua's drug sales in the third quarter of this year were 531 million yuan (same below), up 39% year on year, roughly in line with the bank's expectations of 548 million yuan. It was mainly driven by the continued release of obutinib, including the contribution of first-line CLL/SLL after being included in the national health insurance catalogue, and the differentiated contribution of MZL. Total revenue reached 962 million yuan, up 150% year on year, higher than the bank's expectations. Mainly due to the milestone revenue of Zenas cooperation, it supported net profit of 409 million yuan in the third quarter.

Management maintains the 2026 guideline of over 35% increase in drug sales and anticipates sustainable profitability. Excluding BD revenue, management said that the core commercial business can achieve an independent break-even when drug sales are about 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan. The bank predicts that drug sales will be 2 billion yuan in 2026, and recurring potential BD revenue is expected to bring additional room for profit increases. The bank also indicated that several late-stage projects are nearing commercialization. The early pipeline is also expanding to ADCs and novel immune mechanisms, and the collaboration with Eli Lilly provides external verification of its ability to detect small molecules.

After the results, the bank raised its net profit forecast of 447 million yuan, 108 million yuan and 17 million yuan respectively from 2026 to 2028, mainly reflecting higher-than-expected cooperative revenue, and the drug sales forecast remained largely unchanged.