What EVgo Doubters Saw Before A 69% Fall
EVgo looked like a story of scale and capital efficiency on paper, yet the shareholder outcome over the next twelve months moved in the opposite direction. Holding EVgo over the past year would have meant a 68.5% loss, including dividends. Results later in the period showed revenue and net income both weaker year on year, with net margin sliding deeper into the red. If you had been weighing a purchase in October 2025, what warning signs were already visible?
A Narrative on Simply Wall St is one investor's written case for a company, with its growth, margin and multiple assumptions spelled out. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.
EVgo has already moved. See which of 29 high quality undervalued stocks still trade below our estimates.
The Two EVgo Stories Investors Had To Weigh
The shares cost US$4.11 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at EVgo then had to choose between two very different but plausible stories.
The bullish narrative put Fair Value at US$6.19, based on sharply lower net CapEx per stall and heavy use of grants and incentives to support higher projected returns on capital.
The bearish case pointed to a Fair Value of US$3.5, emphasizing dependence on rapid EV adoption and the risk that slower uptake could leave revenue growth at 17.6% and stall utilization under pressure.
What The Results Changed For The EVgo Debate
The clearest data point for EVgo arrived with the August 2026 filing, where total revenue went from US$98.03m in Q2 2025 to US$82.65m in Q2 2026. Net income losses deepened from US$12.93m to US$20.67m and net margin fell from 13.2% in the red to 25.0% in the red. That record challenged the optimistic profitability path and leaned toward the cautious case.
The useful takeaway is simple. When a story leans on future margin improvement, treat net margin as the main claim to test and track the direction of losses, not just the top line.
What EVgo's Lower Price Now Asks You To Believe
EVgo trades at US$1.25 today, after the share price fell 68.5% over the past year from US$4.11. The selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above the current price, based on how quickly throughput and charging economics can scale from here.
Rather than stall count, the Narrative leans on charging gross margin progress and potential adjacent revenues. A buyer today would need to assume EVgo turns its high power network into sustained throughput growth while keeping adjusted G&A well behind charging revenue.
"Although EVgo is evidencing strong charging gross margin progress, with trailing 12 month charging gross margin near 39%, the cut to 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a loss of up to US$25 million highlights how softer throughput and weaker non charging revenue can still absorb most of that benefit."
That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for
Which Company Could Surprise You Next?
This company's disappointment is already part of the story. Your next idea could come from looking where the price and the possibilities still seem far apart. Here are three companies priced below our estimates.
- Company 1 - 43% below our estimate - converts a record backlog of tech heavy data center projects into ongoing installation work.
- Company 2 - 37% below our estimate - tackles complex AI related safety and regulatory problems that require multidisciplinary PhD consulting teams.
- Company 3 - 32% below our estimate - supplies AI compute platforms that depend on continued dominance in GPUs and the CUDA software stack.
Three companies from the same screener. Open every one of the 24 solid balance sheet companies →
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