$85,000 becomes BTC's life and death line: selling pressure weakens but resistance is heavy

According to Woofun AI, whether the Bitcoin price can break free from continued selling pressure and reshape a healthy market structure depends on whether it can effectively break through the $85,000 critical supply resistance zone. Although the recent rebound has been blocked by the $84,000-$85,000 range, on-chain data reveals that selling pressure is weakening marginally, low buying is beginning to be accepted, and the market is awaiting a clear trend reversal signal.

The underlying reason lies in the cost distribution among long-term holders. Glassnode defines investors who have held for more than 155 days as long-term holders, and analysis shows that around 4 million BTC were purchased in the $85,000 to $118,000 range, creating huge potential selling pressure. Most of these positions are currently at a loss, and investors tend to break the deal when the price is close to the purchase price, thereby curbing the upward momentum.

Woofun AI on-chain data shows that actual losses have dropped sharply from an August low of $630 million to $27 million in the October 24 sell-off wave, indicating that the panic sell-off is nearing its end.

Meanwhile, Binance order book data shows that capital is moving towards lower support levels: the purchase order amount in the $78,000 to $79,000 range rose to about $42 million, a significant increase from $24 million in mid-October; while buying liquidity around $80,000 shrank to around $3.4 million. Instead of leaving the market completely, traders are adjusting their positions in search of a safer entry point.

Structurally, the $77,000-$79,000 range forms an important support for demand. Glassnode's estimated true market average is close to $77,900, and the short-term holder cost benchmark is around $75,800. If Bitcoin closes below these values on a daily basis, the current upward trend will weaken; conversely, maintaining these points will help restart the fundraising process.

The more critical variable is the strength of the upward breakthrough: if the price breaks above $87,500, driven by spot demand and ETF capital inflows, it will confirm that buyers are absorbing existing supply and creating conditions for a broader market recovery.