TotalEnergies Sees Q4 Oil Above $100/b, LNG Price Above $14/Mbtu, Production Growth Over 3% Excluding Middle East Impact, Steady Refining Throughput And Around $15B 2026 Net Investments

Outlook 

• At the beginning of the fourth quarter, oil prices remain above $100/b, reflecting lasting tensions in the Middle East. In petroleum products markets, the situation is highly volatile, impacted by supply disruptions from the Gulf and global inventories at their lowest levels. 
• Forward European gas prices remain on a bull trend in anticipation of the winter demand given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. With the evolution of oil and gas prices in recent months and the lag effect on pricing formulas, TotalEnergies anticipates an increasing average LNG selling price of above $14/Mbtu for the fourth quarter of 2026. 
• Excluding the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, fourth-quarter production is expected to grow by more than 3% compared to fourth quarter 2025, in line with the annual growth guidance. The impact of the conflict on production is currently decreasing compared to the third quarter and represents less than 5% of the Company’s total production, primarily related to limited exports of LNG volumes via the Strait of Hormuz. 
• Refinery throughput volumes are expected to be broadly comparable to those of the third quarter, benefiting from the return-to-normal operations at the SATORP platform in Saudi Arabia, and despite a turnaround of the Normandy platform of 20 days. 
• The Company confirms its planned investments for the year, for a net amount of around $15 billion over 2026, in line with the annual guidance.