Berenberg Updates Equinor Forecasts After Q3 Results, Production Guidance Upgrade

08:15 AM EDT, 10/29/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg revised its estimates for Equinor (EQNR.OL) as it took note of the Norwegian oil and gas group's third-quarter results and "slightly increased" production outlook for 2026. "Equinor increased production growth guidance for 2026 to 4% yoy, from 3% previously, supported by high uptime across the portfolio, lower declines on some assets (notably Johan Sverdrup) and the ramp-up of new fields like Bacalhau in Brazil. This implies total equity production of just over 2.2mboe/d, which is broadly in line with consensus, though we increase our estimate by 1%," analysts said Thursday. For 2027, the company expects production to be below the prior-year level while still surpassing that of 2025. Zooming in on its third-quarter 2026 report, the research firm noted that the focus was on the potential for an above-guidance shareholder distribution in 2027 amid elevated commodity prices. Berenberg said "it seems clear" that Equinor's buybacks for 2027 could surpass its prior target range of $2 billion to $4 billion announced in June 2026, when a barrel of oil was at $60 to $80 each, and gas was $7 to $11 per million British thermal units. As such, analysts now forecast $5 billion worth of buybacks in 2027, up from their previous estimate of $3 billion. Meanwhile, the research firm continues to expect a 2027 quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, corresponding to a "just over" 5% yearly increase. Against this backdrop, Berenberg reiterated its hold rating on the stock, with the price target up to 400 Norwegian kroner from 365 kroner.