Omdia: Global smartphone shipments fell 20% year on year in the third quarter, and the decline in emerging markets was the most significant

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to Omdia data, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 fell 20% year-on-year to 254.7 million units, a new low since 2013. Rising prices dampened consumer demand, and emerging markets were the hardest hit. Samsung and Apple (AAPL.US) led the share, while OPPO and Vivo declined significantly. Global smartphone shipments are expected to drop 12% in 2026; the market will continue to decline in 2027, but the decline will narrow, and cost pressure will continue.

According to Omdia data, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2026 fell 20% year-on-year to 254.7 million units, setting a new low of shipments in the third quarter since 2013. Smartphone prices continue to rise and continue to curb consumer demand, particularly in emerging markets. Distributors and retailers are also cautious about replenishing inventory ahead of the peak holiday sales season, as rising equipment costs increase working capital requirements, thereby limiting the scale of stocking.

Performance of major manufacturers

Samsung maintained its position as the number one smartphone manufacturer in the global market share, with shipments of 57.8 million units, down 5% from the previous year. As other Android brands face limited storage supplies and rising prices, the Galaxy A series targeting the entry-level and mid-range markets helped Samsung remain competitive, supporting its shipment volume and leading position in the global market. Meanwhile, the Galaxy Z8 series, which was released in August, has further strengthened Samsung's position in the high-end market with the support of trade-in and replacement programs.

Apple shipped 56.5 million iPhones in the third quarter of 2026, which is the same as the same period last year despite a decline in the global market. Continued demand for the iPhone 17 and the channel's advance preparation before expected price increases have jointly supported the resilience of demand in the Chinese and North American markets and offset the weak performance of major emerging markets. In September, Apple launched the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and its first folding screen model, the iPhone Duo, while delaying the release of the basic iPhone 18 until 2027. This strategy has extended the iPhone 17 sales cycle while concentrating demand for new products during the peak holiday sales season on high-end models.

OPPO (including Realme and OnePlus) ranked fourth with 23.4 million units shipped, down 39% year on year; vivo ranked fifth with 19.3 million units shipped, down 33% year on year. To cope with rising component costs, the two manufacturers continued to raise prices in the core market, making channel inventory planning more challenging.

Market dynamics: Affordability pressure intensifies, with the most significant decline in emerging markets

Sanyam Chaurasia, chief analyst at Omdia, said: “Emerging markets were once a major pillar of the growth in global smartphone shipments, but now they are under the greatest pressure from price increases. The African market declined 39% year over year, the biggest decline. Although potential demand still exists, rising costs have prompted manufacturers to shift their focus from actively expanding and competing for market share to protecting margins and shipping selectively. Shipments from the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Greater China), the Middle East, and Latin America also all fell by more than 20%. Currency depreciation, inflation, and rising cost of living have further weakened purchasing power, prompting consumers to delay switching or switch to refurbished smartphones; in some low-income markets, consumers are even forced to choose feature phones. In contrast, the North American market performed relatively well, thanks to its market structure dominated by high-end models and mature operator equipment financing, trade-in, and replacement programs.”

In a context where component supply continues to be limited, smartphone manufacturers, mainly targeting the mass market, are increasingly prioritizing resources into profitable markets and core product portfolios. To maintain competitiveness, vendors are adjusting operating memory and storage configurations, streamlining SKUs, and selectively absorbing some of the cost increases while expanding high-value product portfolios to protect profitability.

Market outlook: rising costs and inventory pressure dampen smartphone demand 2026-2027

Amber Liu (Amber Liu), head of Omdia's smartphone business, said: “Omdia expects global smartphone shipments to drop 12% in 2026. Further price increases, combined with limited promotional discount space, are expected to curb demand during the peak holiday sales season. In addition to rising component costs, manufacturers are also facing rising inventory risks when balancing existing inventory with next-generation products. Telecom operators and large retailers are better able to cope with rising equipment prices and increased working capital requirements. At the same time, independent retailers are facing the double pressure of slowing inventory turnover and narrowing profit margins, which may accelerate their exit from the market.”

The global smartphone market is expected to continue to decline in 2027, but the decline will narrow somewhat. The continued shortage of high-bandwidth memory (HBM), combined with the limited supply of traditional memory, is expected to keep costs high, making it difficult for smartphone manufacturers to significantly ease the cost pressure. Vendors are expected to optimize sales, retail, and marketing costs while seeking additional revenue through software, services, and after-sales operations. A sound balance sheet, streamlined inventory, and efficient operations will be the key for vendors and channel partners to establish a competitive advantage.