Steve Eisman Says AI Giants Have 'No Moats.' Morningstar's $57 Billion Math Says Otherwise
Steve Eisman believes the AI boom has a weak link: OpenAI and Anthropic are spending billions on computing power, but cheaper rival models could force them to cut prices, threatening their ability to keep spending.
“The whole chain depends upon the health of Anthropic and OpenAI at least at this point,” the Big Short investor told CNBC Thursday morning, warning that chipmakers and cloud providers are exposed to their financial fortunes.
Asked Wednesday whether he’d buy Anthropic’s IPO, Eisman’s answer was simply: “No.”
But Morningstar argues that the enormous scale of the two frontier labs could protect them. By buying computing power in bulk, the biggest AI labs can secure prices smaller competitors cannot match, potentially giving them a $57 billion annual cost advantage.
Morningstar’s $57 Billion Counterargument
In October Morningstar analysts estimated that multiyear agreements could secure Nvidia B200 computing capacity for $2.25 per GPU-hour, versus a $16.11 hyperscaler list price.
For a gigawatt of computing power, that’s an annual bill of roughly $9 billion instead of $66 billion, an illustrative $57 billion saving.
“The labs are the only buyers able to commit at that duration and scale,” Morningstar wrote.
The analysts see another advantage in Claude Code and OpenAI’s Codex: more customers generate feedback that can improve the products and encourage users to stay.
But cheaper computing doesn’t guarantee customers will keep paying premium prices.
Customers Are Already Shopping Around
October data from Vercel shows customers are increasingly spreading their AI spending across competing models.
Anthropic captured 44% of spending through Vercel’s AI Gateway in September, down from 64% just a month earlier.
But the overall market is booming. Spending on the most advanced AI models has grown tenfold since December, even as cheaper alternatives gain ground.
That means AI companies can grow rapidly while losing market share, raising questions about how much they will eventually be able to charge.
Anthropic’s Oct. 26 IPO filing showed $11.56 billion in second-quarter revenue and $974 million in operating profit, but warned that cheaper rivals could put pressure on prices.
Polymarket Traders Price a $2 Trillion Debut
On Polymarket, traders see roughly a 56% chance that Anthropic will end its first day of trading valued between $1.75 trillion and $2.25 trillion. The market has attracted more than $2 million in trading volume.
The valuations suggest traders expect a huge debut, even as Eisman questions whether Anthropic can defend its margins.
Why Microsoft and Amazon Are Exposed
Eisman has previously estimated, citing Wall Street research, that OpenAI and Anthropic account for roughly 70% of hyperscalers’ AI revenue.
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has invested $18 billion in Anthropic and $50 billion in OpenAI, according to its second-quarter filing. Anthropic, in turn, has committed more than $100 billion to Amazon’s cloud infrastructure over the next decade.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) disclosed an approximately 25% stake in OpenAI and reported $24.1 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue from commercial arrangements with the company, including revenue-sharing payments.
For both technology giants, Eisman’s warning goes beyond the value of their investments. Their cloud businesses also depend on AI labs continuing to spend heavily.
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