Alamos Gold Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Alamos Gold (TSX:AGI) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.

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Summary

Alamos Gold Inc. reported third-quarter production of 119,000 ounces of gold, with strong performance from the Island Gold District offsetting lower output at Young-Davidson. The company reported revenues of $510 million, total cash costs of $1,375 per ounce, all-in sustaining costs of $1,956 per ounce, and adjusted net earnings of $184 million, or $0.44 per share.

Free cash flow for the quarter was $76 million, supporting ongoing growth initiatives and shareholder returns, including $22 million in dividends and share buybacks. Capital expenditures totaled $227 million, with increased spending expected in the fourth quarter as construction activities ramp up at key projects.

The company continues to eliminate legacy gold hedges, enhancing exposure to higher gold prices, and received a $160 million payment from the sale of Turkish assets, bolstering its net cash position to over $400 million.

Operational highlights included record production at Island Gold and significant progress in development projects such as the Lynn Lake project, despite a delay in shaft commissioning at Island Gold due to ground support requirements.

Alamos Gold maintains its strong long-term growth outlook, expecting to nearly double production to 1 million ounces annually by 2030 at lower costs, with upcoming projects like the Magino mill expansion and Lynn Lake contributing to this growth.

Management highlighted challenges such as increased capital costs due to inflation, particularly in labor, but remains confident in meeting future production and cost guidance.

Full Transcript

Scott K. Parsons (Senior Vice President, Corporate Development & Investor Relations)

Good morning. I’ll now turn the call over to Scott Parsons, Alamos Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Thank you, Operator, and thanks to everybody for attending Alamos third quarter 2026 conference call. In addition to myself, we have on the line today John McCluskey, President and Chief Executive Officer, Greg Fisher, Chief Financial Officer, and Luc Guimond, Chief Operating Officer. We will be referring to a presentation during the conference call that is available through the webcast and on our website.

I would also like to remind everyone that our presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. As we will be making forward-looking statements during the call, please refer to the cautionary notes included in the presentation, news release, and MD&A, as well as the risk factors set out in our annual information form. Technical information in this presentation has been reviewed and approved by Chris Bostwick, our Senior Vice President, Technical Services, and a qualified person.

Also, please bear in mind that all of the dollar amounts mentioned in this conference call are in US dollars unless otherwise noted. Now, John will provide you with an overview of the quarter.

John McCluskey (President and CEO)

Thank you, Scott. We produced 119,000 ounces of gold in the third quarter, in line with quarterly guidance, with record production from the Island Gold District offsetting lower planned production from Young-Davidson. The Island Gold District continues to perform well, with both underground mining rates and Magino mill throughput rates setting new quarterly records. Underground mining rates increased to average nearly 1,800 tons per day in the quarter, and the Magino mill averaged over 10,000 tons per day.

We expect a further increase in Island Gold underground mining rates, as well as higher grades, to drive a 26% increase in consolidated production in the fourth quarter, putting us on track to meet our revised annual guidance. As previously guided, all-in sustaining costs increased from the second quarter due to lower production and timing of sustaining capital spending. With the Island Gold District expected to drive costs lower in the fourth quarter, we’re well positioned to achieve our full-year consolidated cost guidance.

Financially, we generated strong free cash flow of $76 million this quarter, net of our reinvestment in high growth and exploration. We are on pace for another year of record free cash flow while continuing to advance our growth projects. Turning to Slide 4, during the quarter, we returned $22 million to shareholders through our quarterly dividend and ongoing share buybacks. We remain active on our buyback, repurchasing an additional $17 million worth of shares in October thus far, bringing our year-to-date shareholder returns to $123 million. We continue to eliminate gold hedges inherited from the Argonaut Gold transaction, having repurchased 36,000 ounces of the remaining 50,000 ounces of forward contracts since the second quarter.

Since our acquisition of Argonaut in 2024, we have bought back 96% of the legacy gold hedges, substantially increasing our exposure to higher gold prices. Earlier in October, we received the $160 million anniversary payment related to the sale of our Turkish assets, which further strengthened our balance sheet. With a solid net cash position of over $400 million and strong ongoing cash flow, we remain well positioned to self-fund our growth initiatives and support our increased shareholder returns.

Turning to our growth initiatives, we continue to make progress across our assets. Construction of the Lynn Lake project is ramping up as planned, and work on the shaft and mill expansion at Island Gold is advancing. With the shaft sink completed earlier this year, our focus is on the shaft bottom infrastructure. During the excavation of the bins in the ore/waste handling system at Island Gold, we encountered a dike that will require additional ground support.

As a result, shaft commissioning has been delayed by approximately one quarter. It is now scheduled for completion in mid-2027, with ramp-up of mining rates to 2,400 tons per day expected in the second half of the year. Turning to Slide 5, the delay does not change our strong long-term outlook. We expect the completion of the shaft expansion at Island Gold in 2027, mill expansion at Magino in 2028, and Lynn Lake production in 2029 to drive significant growth over the coming years. We remain on track to nearly double our rate of production to approximately 1 million ounces annually by 2030 at substantially lower costs, and we have one of the best growth profiles in the sector.

This growth is all located in Canada, lower cost, and it’s expected to support significant free cash flow growth over the coming years. I’ll now turn the call over to our CFO, Greg Fisher, to review our financial performance.

Greg Fisher (Chief Financial Officer)

Thank you, John. On to Slide 6. We sold 118,400 ounces of gold in the third quarter at an average realized price of $4,258 per ounce for quarterly revenues of $510 million. Total cash costs were $1,375 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs were $1,956 per ounce. Operating cash flow before changes in non-cash working capital was $235 million in the quarter, or $0.56 per share. This is a decrease from the second quarter due to lower production and margins.

Included in cash flow from operations was the use of $86 million, or $0.21 per share, of cash to repurchase and eliminate 33,000 ounces of legacy Argonaut gold hedges that were scheduled to mature in the first half of 2027. We repurchased and eliminated a further 3,000 ounces in October and expect to eliminate the remaining 14,000 ounces prior to their maturity in 2027. Our reported net earnings were $166 million in the quarter, or $0.40 per share, and our adjusted net earnings were $184 million, or $0.44 per share. This includes an after-tax adjustment for net loss on commodity hedge derivatives of $10 million, adjustments for net unrealized foreign exchange losses recorded within deferred taxes and foreign exchange of $7 million, and other adjustments of $1 million.

Capital spending in the quarter totaled $227 million, consisting of $50 million of sustaining capital, $164 million of growth capital, and $13 million of capitalized exploration. We expect capital spending to decrease—oh, sorry. We expect capital spending to increase in the fourth quarter, in line with guidance, as we continue to ramp up construction activities at Lynn Lake and PDA. Our growth continues to be funded internally while generating strong free cash flow.

All of our sites generated positive free cash flow during the third quarter, for a total of $76 million. Through the first three quarters of 2026, net of significant capital spend to support our growth, we have generated $321 million of free cash flow, all of which has been allocated to increase returns to our shareholders and the repurchase of legacy Argonaut hedges. Year to date, we have utilized $228 million to eliminate the majority of the remaining legacy hedges and returned $123 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

This included another $17 million of shares repurchased in October. Given our strong financial position and outlook, we expect to continue to be opportunistic on our share buyback. We ended the quarter with a strong net cash position of $397 million. Earlier in October, we received the first anniversary payment of $160 million related to last year’s sale of our Turkish development projects, with the final payment of $150 million to be received in October 2027.

I will now turn the call over to our COO, Luc Guimond, to provide an overview of our operations. Luke?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

Thank you, Greg. Over to slide seven. The Island Gold District had a record quarter from a number of perspectives, including record production of 68,700 ounces. The operation is on track to achieve its full-year production guidance with higher underground mining rates and grades expected to drive additional growth in the fourth quarter. Underground mining rates averaged a record 1,790 tons per day, consistent with our ramp-up schedule. Grades mined of 8.69 grams per ton were slightly below plan due to higher-than-expected dilution within certain stopes mined in August.

Underground grades mined are expected to increase towards the top end of our annual guidance range in the fourth quarter. Open pit operations continue to perform well, as did the Magino mill, with milling rates increasing to average a record 10,300 tons per day. This reflects improved performance and reliability driven by an enhanced maintenance program, which is supporting increased availability, and supplemental ore feed from the temporary crusher.

Third quarter total cash costs and mine site all-in sustaining costs were $1,242 and $1,782 per ounce, respectively. Costs are expected to decrease significantly in the fourth quarter as underground mining rates and grades increase. The Island Gold District generated strong mine site free cash flow of $72 million in the third quarter, net of the significant capital investment related to the Island Gold District expansion and a record exploration program.

Moving to slide 8, the ramp-up of underground mining rates at Island Gold is progressing extremely well with steady improvements over each of the last three quarters. This has and will continue to be a key driver of our production growth at the Island Gold District. This quarter’s average of 1,790 tons per day is a new record and a 15% increase over the second quarter. We expect to exit the year at 2,000 tons per day, with a further increase to 2,400 tons per day following the commissioning of the shaft in mid-2027.

Moving to slide 9, the Magino mill is also performing well, having averaged design rates of 10,000 tons per day since June. This included a 16% increase in the third quarter to a record 10,300 tons per day, with the strong performance continuing into October. The higher throughput has been driven by the improvements that we made to the mill over the past two years, including the addition of a temporary crusher earlier this year to maintain consistent ore feed.

We will continue to run the temporary crusher until the mill expansion to 20,000 tons per day is complete in 2028 and the existing primary crusher is replaced with a larger and more robust gyratory crusher. In the meantime, we expect milling rates to remain at steady-state levels of 10,000 tons per day. Moving to slide 10, during the quarter we spent $92 million in growth capital at the Island Gold District to advance both the Phase 3+ and Island Gold District expansions. Substantially all capital for the Phase 3+ shaft expansion has been spent or committed. As John mentioned earlier, during the excavation of the bins within the ore and waste handling system, we encountered a dike that will require additional ground support.

In addition, we are proactively enhancing ground support across the loading pocket and the broader ore and waste handling system to ensure geotechnical stability is maintained over the long term around our key underground infrastructure. As a result, commissioning of the shaft has been delayed by approximately a quarter and is now scheduled to be completed mid-2027. Given the additional work as well as ongoing inflation, we now expect the total Phase 3+ shaft expansion capital cost to be 5% higher than the $835 million budgeted.

Underground mining rates are still expected to continue increasing above 2,000 tons per day in the first half of 2027; however, they will be lower than previously guided, with the ramp-up to 2,400 tons per day not expected until the second half of 2027. Turning to the Island Gold District expansion, as of the end of the third quarter, 45% of the growth capital was spent or committed. Progress is being made across all the key components of the mill expansion to 20,000 tons per day, which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2028.

This included advancing excavation and concrete works for the crushers and fine ore bins, and structural steel and foundation work for the refinery. Once the shaft and process plant expansions are complete, the Island Gold District will produce over 500,000 ounces annually of low-cost production, making it one of Canada’s largest and most profitable gold mines. Over to slide 11. Young-Davidson produced 22,700 ounces of gold in the third quarter as previously guided. This was down from the second quarter, reflecting lower planned mining rates after the seismic event in June. Mining rates averaged 5,135 tons per day, consistent with our guidance for the second half of this year. Grades came in slightly below plan this quarter due to higher-than-expected dilution but are expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter.

We continued to process low-grade stockpiles during the quarter, resulting in milling rates exceeding mining rates and averaging nearly 7,100 tons per day. As guided, costs increased from the second quarter reflecting the lower mining and production rates as well as costs related to the rehabilitation work and additional ground support measures. Reflecting the timing of sustaining capital spending, we expect mine site all-in sustaining costs to increase in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year mine site all-in sustaining costs in line with revised guidance.

Despite the lower production rate, Young-Davidson generated mine site free cash flow of $30 million for the quarter, with similar production expected in the fourth quarter. The operation remains on track to achieve its revised annual production and cost guidance. Over to slide 12. Following the seismic event in June, we are making progress on our initiatives to begin increasing mining rates in 2027. Rehabilitation work on the 9410 level is ongoing, as is the implementation of enhanced ground support throughout the lower portion of the mine. We also continued advancing work on an updated mine plan that will be designed to minimize stress through an optimized ore extraction sequence. These initiatives are expected to support a gradual ramp-up in mining rates through 2027 and 2028, driving production higher and costs lower.

We will provide an update on future mining rates and costs with our three-year guidance in early 2027. Over to slide 13. Production from the Mulatos District totaled 27,600 ounces, including 23,400 ounces from La Yaqui Grande. Production was 8% below the previous quarter, driven by lower grades and tons mined. Mining rates were impacted by the rainy season and the constrained operating area at the bottom of the pit. As La Yaqui Grande nears the end of its mine life, recoveries increased quarter over quarter driven by recovery of ounces stacked in prior periods.

The Mulatos District remains on track to meet its annual production guidance, with higher grades and stacking rates at La Yaqui Grande expected to drive stronger production in the fourth quarter. Open pit mining at La Yaqui Grande is expected to be complete in the first half of 2027, with residual leaching to contribute to ongoing production through 2027. Costs during the quarter increased compared to the second quarter driven by lower production but remained within our annual guidance range.

The Mulatos District generated strong mine site free cash flow of $39 million while funding construction of the PDA project and a significant exploration program. Over to slide 14. A total of $25 million of capital development was spent at PDA during the quarter, mainly on underground development, mill structural work, and construction of the crushing circuit. Spending is expected to increase further in the fourth quarter as the project progresses towards first production next year. Initial capital remains unchanged at $165 million, and mill construction is advancing well with targeted completion in mid-2027.

Underground development rates have been slower than planned and are expected to result in lower production from PDA during the second half of 2027. This is a result of the requirement for additional ground support as well as contractor performance. Development rates are improving, but given the performance to date, the ramp-up in mining rates is expected to be impacted through 2027. Completion of the PDA mill will unlock a pipeline of higher-grade near-mine and regional exploration targets across the district.

Exploration is ongoing at the Mulatos District, and we view the PDA project as just the starting point for the district. Over to slide 15. At Lynn Lake, we spent $40 million in development capital during the quarter and advanced several key construction milestones. This includes commissioning the permanent camp, foundation work for the process plant, and site-wide infrastructure projects. The Lynn Lake project remains within budget and on schedule for completion in the first half of 2029. With production expected to average 186,000 ounces over its first 10 years at first-quartile costs, Lynn Lake will be a key contributor on our path to producing 1 million ounces annually by 2030 at substantially lower costs.

With that, I will turn the call back to John.

John McCluskey (President and CEO)

Thank you, Luc.

OPERATOR

I’ll turn the call now over to the operator and we’ll open the call for your questions. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. Thank you. We will pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster. And your first question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Fahad Tariq (Analyst)

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. On Island Gold, the delay by a quarter for the shaft commissioning — can you just talk about how we should be thinking about next year’s production guidance for Island Gold? Is it safe to say that the previous range is no longer appropriate?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

Yeah, I mean, I can take that. I mean, our view is our previous guidance had expected that we’d be running at 2,400 tons per day from the outset. We’re about six months delayed on that overall compared to our original guidance. But we’re still ramping up our mining rates to close to 2,000 — I mean, over 2,000 tons per day by the end of the year and into 2027. So there’s a shortfall of some of the mining rates of, you know, upwards of 400 tons per day.

But we’re going to try to close that gap in the first half of the year. So you can, you know, quantify that. But I’ll say that we’re still going through our budgeting process to finalize that. But on a high level, that’s the easiest way to look at it — is, you know, around 400 tons per day for the first half of the year.

Fahad Tariq (Analyst)

Okay. And then for the mill expansion, can you just maybe touch on any capital or capex inflation that you’re seeing given that about 45% of the growth capital has been spent already? Thanks.

Greg Fisher (Chief Financial Officer)

Yeah, overall we’re seeing that when we put in our orders it’s in line with what we had expected with the budget. But there are inflationary pressures, especially around labor. So labor is where we’re seeing the biggest pressure from both operations and capital, but it’s probably a bit more profound on the capital project side.

Fahad Tariq (Analyst)

Okay, thank you.

OPERATOR

Your next question comes from the line of Sesh Kasanathan with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Satish (Analyst)

Yeah, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe my first question is on YD. So how should we think about the mined versus blended grades in Q4? Given that you continue to expect processing the lower grade stockpiles and looking into 2027, with the mining recovery now expected to be more gradual, should we assume stockpiles continue to supplement the mill feed? How much stockpile inventory do you currently have and at what grade?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

Yeah, hi Satish, it’s Luc here. Yeah, look, certainly moving forward, our expectations for the rest of this year in Q4 is still running at about 5,000 tons per day coming from the underground. Grades on that are expected to be in the 1.7 to 1.8 range. Based on what we had communicated previously there post the seismic event, we will continue to feed some low-grade stockpile as well for the remainder of the year. And that grade is running around 0.3 to 0.4 grams typically.

And overall, the mill plan would be running at about 7,000 tonnes per day, but the underground mine plan is running at about 5,000 tons a day, so you can see about an additional 2,000 tonnes being fed from stockpile. We still have a fair bit of stockpile material there in the neighborhood of probably about 300,000 tonnes, so there will be an opportunity to actually continue to feed some of that in 2027 as well as we continue to ramp up with the underground mining rates from the underground from YD.

Satish (Analyst)

Okay, thank you. Maybe one question on the CapEx guidance. So you’ve increased the Island Gold Phase 3 CapEx by 5% but you have maintained the 165 million PDA budget despite additional ground support requirements as well as slow underground development. So what gives you confidence in the PDA estimate and are there any offsets or contingency within the project that can absorb these cost pressures?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

Yeah, we’re still comfortable with the 165 million. The majority of that 165 million is related to the processing plant construction. I think roughly about 100 million of that breakdown is from the actual mill construction, and the other 60 to 65 million was in relation to the development. There’s, you know, there’s a minor increase overall with regards to the additional ground support. It’s more around the timing of the performance rates that we’ve had, certainly going through the start of PDA and performance with the contractor.

But as I mentioned in the readings there, we’re seeing improvement with the contractor moving forward. So we would expect to start to see better performance moving forward.

Satish (Analyst)

Okay, understood. Thank you.

OPERATOR

Your next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Cosmos Chiu (Analyst)

Thanks, John, and team. Maybe my first question is on PDA. As you mentioned, underground development is slower than expected due to ground conditions and contractors. Could you maybe talk a bit more about those ground conditions? Are you hitting some kind of structure or is it just really the quality of the rock that you’re encountering? And then in terms of needing more ground support, are you just putting more rock bolts into it and more mesh, or is it really improving on the quality of that mesh or the rock bolts?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

Hi, Cosmo. Yeah, it’s Luc here. With regards to the structure with the two portals that we’ve developed there, there is a known fault system that we knew we had to go through. Our expected performance rate through that fault—we were expecting better performance, certainly with the contractor to get through those fault systems—so that took a bit longer. So that was part of it. And as a result of the conditions of that ground, going through that fault system requires some additional ground support with mesh as well as shotcrete, actually.

So it took a bit more time to get through there, and, you know, the daily performance rate of going through that fault system also was slower as a result. But we’re now through that. We’re actually, you know, as we progress and we’re ramping up with regards to overall development rates, we’re in better ground conditions now. But it was a known entity. It just, you know, once we got into those actual conditions, it just took a bit longer.

Cosmos Chiu (Analyst)

Great. And then maybe talking about structures and moving to Island Gold, I guess, you know, you’ve encountered the dike, and that’s kind of slowed things down a little as well as you excavate for the ore bins and a waste handling system. Is that also a known structure? I bet it is a known structure, but how extensive is that structure? And then I guess the next question is, could it impact or could it cause issues elsewhere as you continue to finish up the shaft?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

The short answer to that is no. No impact. As far as what we’re looking to put in place, the challenge there was really a sequence change. Our intention initially, when we were developing, you know, the 1265 Grizzly Station, as well as the 1350 loading pocket and the bin that ties those two levels together, was to complete all of that rock work simultaneously—basically in conjunction—developing at 1265, doing some bin work and doing work at 1350, all of the rock work getting completed, which then would allow us to actually be able to also gain on schedule and hold the schedule we had initially communicated with regards to commissioning the overall ore-waste handling system, where we could actually do construction both at 1265 and 1350.

As a result of the dike and some of the overbreak that’s very localized at the collar at the top of the bin, we had to provide some additional ground support in there. And the safer approach, ultimately, because of the overbreak that occurred there, was to actually do some of the civil work ahead of time—so basically lock in that whole area with rebar and concrete—and then do the bin slashing afterwards. So it just really resulted in a safer approach overall.

But it changed the sequence, which is what’s pushed out basically the overall commissioning of that shaft infrastructure by about a quarter.

Cosmos Chiu (Analyst)

Okay. And then in terms of the head grade or the underground grade at Island Gold in Q3, 8.69 gram per tonne, as you mentioned. That’s slightly lower than what you had expected, in part due to mining dilution in August. I think that’s the first time I’ve heard about, you know, slightly higher than expected mining dilution at some of the higher-grade stopes at Island Gold. Or am I mistaken? Is this common? Does this happen elsewhere, or is this the first time that you’ve also seen it?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

Well, I mean, the dilution aspect can happen periodically in certain areas, in certain stopes. In this case, it was one of our higher-grade stopes. We had a couple of stopes that underperformed from a point of view of dilution in this area. But overall, to your point, I think, you know, really historically with regards to the performance from a grade reconciliation point of view at Island has been very positive. In this particular case in the quarter, as a result of the dilution we had in a couple of stopes, that actually put us a little bit below our guidance range of that 9 grams to 11 and a half grams that we’ve been typically performing in.

Cosmos Chiu (Analyst)

Great. Thanks, Luc and team. Thanks for answering all my questions. That’s all I have. Thank you.

OPERATOR

Your next question comes from the line of Kerry McCreary with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Kerry McCreary (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, guys. Just given that we’re a month into Q4, just wondering how you’re tracking on your Q4 guidance. Are there any particular milestones you need to still see to hit that guidance, or just wondering how things are progressing and particularly, I guess, around Island Gold. Are you into that 11-plus gram material now?

Luc Guimond (Chief Operating Officer)

Yeah, we were expecting higher grades in Q4 and we’re tracking well on that basis, as well as the ramp-up that we’re continuing to do with Island. As we’ve talked about, we’ve had a gradual increase quarter over quarter with regards to the mining rates at Island Gold and expecting to continue to perform well on that basis as well as we move into Q4. And our expectation of what we communicated is certainly on the Island aspect of it is to be exiting at 2,000 tons per day by the end of the year.

So that continues to perform well.

Kerry McCreary (Analyst)

Okay, that’s it for me. Thanks.

OPERATOR

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes this morning’s call. If you have any further questions that have not been answered, please feel free to contact Mr. Scott Parsons at 416-368-9932, extension 5430.

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