Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Edge Up On Strong Trade Prices And RBA Watch

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Thursday, 29 Oct 2026

Australian shares are set for a mildly positive open, with sentiment pinned to fresh trade price data rather than offshore leads. Stronger Q3 export prices are giving the local market a clear, commodity heavy driver this morning.

Export prices rose 1.4% quarter on quarter, with natural and manufactured gas up 28.6% and coal supported by supply constraints. Import prices fell 1.1% over the same period. That mix points to firmer trade incomes and softer imported inflation pressures.

Higher export prices can improve cash flow for resource producers, which in turn supports capital spending plans and tax receipts. Softer import costs ease pressure on companies that rely on overseas inputs, which can help margins without relying on aggressive price rises.

The open question is how the Reserve Bank interprets this combination of stronger export prices and weaker import inflation. Attention now turns to upcoming Q3 producer prices, which will help clarify whether domestic cost pressures match the more benign import story.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Mesoblast (MSB)

Mesoblast surged 23.4% after an update on several late stage therapies. The group finished treating all patients in its pivotal Phase 3 trial of rexlemestrocel L for chronic low back pain and reported a positive FDA meeting on a planned filing for use in end stage heart failure patients.

Investors now watch timelines for the Biologics License Application and progress in the new registration trial aiming to expand RYONCIL use in adult SR aGvHD.

Turaco Gold (TCG)

Turaco Gold locked in up to A$130m in fresh equity to secure full economic exposure to the Afema Gold Project. A A$120m placement at A$0.60 a share, led by a global resources fund, plus a targeted A$10m share purchase plan will fund the acquisition of the remaining 20% interest.

The raise also covers DFS work, exploration and a planned royalty buyback. Key dates now are the November SPP window, the December shareholder vote and the completion of the Afema deal.

Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI)

Pinnacle Investment Management released FY26 results that showed NPAT of A$176.7m, up 31%, on Funds Under Management of A$229.4b. Net inflows reached a record A$33.4b and diluted EPS was 78.1 cents. The dividend stayed at 60 cents per share, a 77% payout ratio.

Management flagged Q1 FY27 FUM of A$238.1b and continued inflows. Readers tracking Pinnacle can focus on performance fees, affiliate expansion and any change in that high payout policy.

Top Movers

• IperionX (ASX:IPX) jumped 16.67% after investors reacted to its September quarterly report on titanium capacity and contracts.
• New Murchison Gold (ASX:NMG) gained 8.47% after extending Crown Prince with a high grade gold intersection near existing workings.
• Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) advanced 7.69% as traders weighed the confirmed AUSTRAC penalty in relation to recent turnaround and earnings updates.

Top Losers

• Champion Iron (ASX:CIA) fell 17.26% after quarterly results showed lower sales and a swing to a net loss.
• Mader Group (ASX:MAD) declined 10.71% following news that its Chief Financial Officer stepped down and an interim CFO was appointed.
• Elevra Lithium (ASX:ELV) dropped 9.38% after investors reacted to its quarterly activities report and portfolio refocus.

On The Radar

Over the next few sessions, the Australian market’s attention shifts from fresh inflation data to heavyweight bank results and central bank decisions that influence borrowing costs and the currency.

• Australia Q3 PPI QoQ, Fri 30 Oct. The producer price index has a consensus of 1% compared with a previous 1.3%. A result above that range would highlight domestic cost pressure and keep rate expectations and A$ funding costs under scrutiny.
• Origin Energy, Fri 30 Oct. Q1 2027 numbers for Origin Energy will indicate how recent moves in gas export prices and oil related imports are feeding into upstream cash generation and retail margins for one of the key local energy stocks.
• Westpac Banking, Mon 2 Nov. Full year 2026 figures from Westpac Banking will focus attention on net interest margins and bad debts, which influence how investors assess pricing across the big four bank sector.
• RBA Interest Rate Decision, Tue 3 Nov. The Reserve Bank meets with the cash rate previously at 4.6% and a forecast of 4.85%. Any move relative to that level would affect mortgage costs, equity valuations and the A$ in short order.
• US Core PCE Price Index MoM, Thu 29 Oct. Core PCE has a 0.3% consensus, above a previous 0.2%. An upside surprise would be consistent with a stronger US$ and tighter global financial conditions, which can pressure the A$ and rate sensitive local stocks.

Sector & Industry Watch

Energy: Strong year, short term wobble

Energy has slipped over the past week even though the year to date return remains firmly positive, with Oil and Gas showing the same pattern. That softer patch sits alongside fresh deals such as Woodside’s long term LNG agreement with QatarEnergy and active drilling and production updates from smaller producers.

If you hold Energy stocks, keep your eye on quarterly reports for contract pricing, production volumes and planned capex, because those details drive cash flow far more than this week’s pullback.

Real Estate: REITs benefit from firm rent rolls

Real Estate has continued to edge higher on a 7 day and 30 day view even though 1 year and year to date returns stay clearly weaker. Updates from Charter Hall Retail REIT, Vicinity Centres, Dexus and BWP Trust point to high occupancy, good rent collection and ongoing asset sales and refinancings at current interest rate levels.

For income focused investors, the key lever now is how these A REITs talk about debt costs and payout ratios as the RBA weighs its next move, because that determines how sustainable current distributions look.

Financials and Banks: Lending active, rate risk live

Financials have been positive over the past month, with Banks rising more strongly over the past week and now roughly flat year to date. Activity around asset backed deals from FSA Group and Wisr, plus trading updates from BNK Banking and Insurance Australia Group, shows credit still flowing while markets price a possible shift from the RBA after that 4.3% CPI print.

If you rely on bank dividends, watch Westpac’s upcoming result and the next RBA meeting for comments on arrears and bad debts, because those give a cleaner read on how stretched households are feeling as repayments stay elevated.

Tech: Sharp weekly bounce from low base

Tech has delivered one of the stronger 7 day moves and a solid month, although 1 year and year to date returns remain deeply negative. Recent quarterly reports from Spacetalk, Hydrix, Data#3, Xref, AVA Risk Group and others show a mix of recurring revenue, cost cuts and new contracts, which is helping sentiment while global AI enthusiasm keeps attention on digital infrastructure and software.

If you already own Tech, focus on cash burn, funding runway and the share of revenue that is recurring when you skim results, since those metrics matter more for resilience than this week’s rebound in sector returns.

Consumer Discretionary: Higher essentials pinch fun money

Consumer Discretionary has eased over the past week after a stronger month and is still weak over 1 year and year to date. News around Star Entertainment’s A$260m penalty, Accent Group’s takeover saga and governance concerns at Simonds Group underlines how tighter household budgets and closer regulatory attention are shaping retailers, auto groups and casinos.

If your portfolio includes these stocks, the practical thing to watch is trading commentary on volumes and discounting, because with CPI at 4.3% and mortgage costs elevated, any sign of shoppers trading down or buying less can quickly feed into profit margins.

Find Stocks Poised To Move

With CPI at 4.3% and the RBA still weighing higher rates, income seekers can stress test their holdings against this list of 4 dividend fortresses.

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