According to the J.P. Morgan Chase research team, demand for short-term US treasury bonds has cooled down, driving their relative interest rate swaps to weaken recently, and it is difficult to quickly reverse this situation. According to a report released by strategists Jay Barry, Pankaj Vohra, Amanda Berke, and Molly Herckis, the growth in the scale of monetary fund management has stagnated in the past two months, and the weighted average period has been further shortened. “Even if the fourth quarter is expected to see a seasonal recovery, we expect the overall management scale increase in 2026 will be lower than in the previous two years.” At the same time, “in the four months up to August, short-term US bond holdings of foreign official institutions were reduced by 145 billion US dollars, and their share in the short-term treasury bond market fell to its lowest level since May 2024; the scale of stablecoin management also stagnated over the past year.” “Although there is room for recovery in overseas demand, we can see that the annual growth in the size of the monetary fund is weak; if the scale of stablecoin management is to expand significantly, it depends on the recovery of the crypto market.” The strategist concluded: “Based on the above pattern of supply and demand, we expect short-term treasury bond prices to strengthen significantly next year.”

According to the J.P. Morgan Chase research team, demand for short-term US treasury bonds has cooled down, driving their relative interest rate swaps to weaken recently, and it is difficult to quickly reverse this situation. According to a report released by strategists Jay Barry, Pankaj Vohra, Amanda Berke, and Molly Herckis, the growth in the scale of monetary fund management has stagnated in the past two months, and the weighted average period has been further shortened. “Even if the fourth quarter is expected to see a seasonal recovery, we expect the overall management scale increase in 2026 will be lower than in the previous two years.” At the same time, “in the four months up to August, short-term US bond holdings of foreign official institutions were reduced by 145 billion US dollars, and their share in the short-term treasury bond market fell to its lowest level since May 2024; the scale of stablecoin management also stagnated over the past year.” “Although there is room for recovery in overseas demand, we can see that the annual growth in the size of the monetary fund is weak; if the scale of stablecoin management is to expand significantly, it depends on the recovery of the crypto market.” The strategist concluded: “Based on the above pattern of supply and demand, we expect short-term treasury bond prices to strengthen significantly next year.”