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Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that this round of El Niño has been confirmed as a super level, and it will be the strongest incident since systematic monitoring was carried out. The climate impact of El Niño will gradually be transmitted along the industrial chain. High temperatures and droughts in Southeast Asia and South Asia are compounded by restrictions on access to the Panama Canal, impacting agricultural product supply from both sides; midstream varieties are clearly affected, and palm oil production is most likely to be reduced but the time is the longest. The net impact of sugar depends on Brazil's sugar production ratio. Low stocks amplify the elasticity of corn, and rubber needs to continuously track inventory and downstream demand in production areas; downstream seed industry, agrochemistry, and aquaculture are lagging behind by about a year. The current sector's weather forecast pricing is sufficient. Subsequent excess earnings depend on the implementation of production cuts. The allocation should focus on varieties with concentrated production areas, low inventory, and the same policy.

Zhitongcaijing·10/30/2026 02:17:01
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Wanlian Securities released a research report saying that this round of El Niño has been confirmed as a super level, and it will be the strongest incident since systematic monitoring was carried out. The climate impact of El Niño will gradually be transmitted along the industrial chain. High temperatures and droughts in Southeast Asia and South Asia are compounded by restrictions on access to the Panama Canal, impacting agricultural product supply from both sides; midstream varieties are clearly affected, and palm oil production is most likely to be reduced but the time is the longest. The net impact of sugar depends on Brazil's sugar production ratio. Low stocks amplify the elasticity of corn, and rubber needs to continuously track inventory and downstream demand in production areas; downstream seed industry, agrochemistry, and aquaculture are lagging behind by about a year. The current sector's weather forecast pricing is sufficient. Subsequent excess earnings depend on the implementation of production cuts. The allocation should focus on varieties with concentrated production areas, low inventory, and the same policy.