Finnair Oyj Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
The third-quarter results for Finnair Oyj (HEL:FIA1S) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €953m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Finnair Oyj surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.29 per share, a notable 12% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Finnair Oyj's three analysts is for revenues of €3.59b in 2027. This reflects an okay 4.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 61% to €0.26 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.29 in 2027. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Finnair Oyj
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €3.40, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Finnair Oyj at €3.80 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.90. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Finnair Oyj is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Finnair Oyj's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 3.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Finnair Oyj.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Finnair Oyj's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €3.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Finnair Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Finnair Oyj going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Finnair Oyj has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
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