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    Novo Nordisk (NVO) Could Be 62% Undervalued On GLP 1 Growth Expectations

    Simply Wall St·10/30/2026 10:23:16
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    Recent Share Performance and Business Profile

    Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) has been trading around US$39.14 per share, with the price moving higher over the past day and past month but declining over the past 3 months, year to date, and over the past year.

    Those mixed returns sit against a large pharmaceutical business focused on diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular care, rare blood and endocrine disorders, and hormone replacement therapies. The group also reports annual revenue of US$329.4b and net income of US$116.4b in its reporting currency. It also has a value score of 5, which helps frame basic expectations for investors assessing Novo Nordisk today.

    At around US$39.14, Novo Nordisk’s 1-day share price return of 2.22% sits against a weaker backdrop, with the stock down 16.86% over 90 days and the 1-year total shareholder return declining 19.12%, which signals fading momentum rather than a short pause.

    Short bursts of buying interest have appeared recently, yet the longer stretch of weaker share price returns and multi year total shareholder return declines suggest investors are reassessing how much risk they are willing to take on in relation to future growth in obesity and diabetes treatments while weighing the current valuation.

    Scan beyond Novo Nordisk and compare it with a hand picked 30 high quality undervalued stocks that also pair solid cash generation with balance sheets built to handle tougher conditions.

    Novo Nordisk has swung from sharp gains in weight loss optimism to a share price that now sits well below many fair value estimates. Is that discount justified, or does the valuation gap look too wide?

    Most Popular Narrative: 62% Undervalued

    Narrative followers place Novo Nordisk’s fair value at $102.97 per share, which is far above the recent $39.14 close, setting up a clear valuation gap driven by GLP-1 expectations and new treatment categories.

    The GLP-1 market is growing at an unprecedented rate, with global sales projected to more than double from 2025 levels to reach $190 billion to $200 billion by 2035, with some forecasts projecting the market to exceed $250 billion by 2030-2034 due to the expansion into new therapeutic areas and rapid adoption of oral treatments.

    See why 68 investors see Novo Nordisk as 62% undervalued.

    According to MCOInvestors, that gap between $39.14 and the $102.97 fair value comes from expectations that GLP-1 therapies reach far beyond diabetes and obesity into cardiovascular and other chronic conditions, turning Novo Nordisk into a long duration cash generator rather than a single product story.

    The narrative also leans on margin assumptions, with profit margins modeled at 35% and a future P/E of 22 in line with the wider pharmaceuticals group, which together support the view that current pricing reflects a sharp reset in sentiment rather than a reset in long term cash generation potential.

    On that view, the 62% discount to fair value is less about short term share price moves and more about whether investors agree that GLP-1 use cases and oral formulations can keep compounding revenue well beyond what current forecasts imply.

    Result: Fair Value of $102.97 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, this Novo Nordisk narrative could crack if oral GLP-1 approvals slip, or if regulators limit compounding restrictions and keep more patients on cheaper alternatives.

    Find out about the key risks to this Novo Nordisk narrative.

    Next Steps

    Sentiment around Novo Nordisk is clearly divided, with optimism on long term GLP-1 potential meeting concern about risks that could cap that story. Move quickly: review the full mix of 1 or more risks and 1 or more rewards that investors are focused on today, and then decide where you stand after reading the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

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