SNDL Inc. (NASDAQ:SNDL) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report
As you might know, SNDL Inc. (NASDAQ:SNDL) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. Revenues were in line with expectations, at CA$238m, while statutory losses ballooned to CA$0.21 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the twin analysts covering SNDL provided consensus estimates of CA$814.1m revenue in 2027, which would reflect an uneasy 12% decline over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with SNDL forecast to report a statutory profit of CA$0.02 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$924.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.11 in 2027. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about SNDL's prospects following the latest results, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.
View our latest analysis for SNDL
The consensus price target fell 7.4% to US$3.26, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.5% annualised decline to the end of 2027. That is a notable change from historical growth of 23% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.5% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - SNDL is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for SNDL. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of SNDL's future valuation.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2028, which can be seen for free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - SNDL has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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