Tech gaps into the playbook targets:Nasdaq futures slide as AI-spending worries return, Crude continues higher
Nasdaq 100 futures were down more than 2% before Friday's open after Amazon signaled another increase in capital spending and Intel warned it will burn cash this year. The overnight slide did much of the work the TradeGuidance day-session playbook laid out. At 8:36 a.m. ET, December Nasdaq futures (NQZ26) traded at 28,805.75. That was already below the playbook's short participation range of 29,887.75–29,499.75 and about 304 points above its 28,501.50 initial target. The question for the cash open is no longer direction; the models and the tape already agree on that. It is whether the selling follows through to target or whether a gap this large snaps back into the range. The levels below are where each outcome would show itself.
Market context
The selloff is concentrated in technology. As of 7:14 a.m. ET, S&P 500 E-minis were down about 1% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis about 2.4%, while Dow E-minis were slightly higher. Amazon was down roughly 6% premarket after a sharp third-quarter cash outflow and plans for higher capital spending next year. Intel was down more than 25% after warning about cash burn. Nvidia and AMD were also lower. Chevron and Exxon Mobil both beat third-quarter estimates, which helps explain why the Dow is holding up better than the Nasdaq.
The rotation started Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.38% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.30%, but the Russell 2000 gained 1.01% to 2,859.22. The macro backdrop adds pressure: the Fed held rates this week, but markets are pricing more than 50 basis points of hikes by mid-2027. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.93%. Early quotes had crude up about $2 near $104 and gold down about $40 near $3,991. It is also the last trading day of October, so month-end rebalancing flows are in play.
What our models see
TradeGuidance uses three separate tools: the directional playbooks (participation range, reversal point and initial target), the TGPivots support/resistance map (S1–S3, R1–R3) and the 0DTE gamma map built from the options chain. A setup carries the most weight when all three tell the same story. Here is where the index futures stood at the 8:36 a.m. ET gamma run:
| Fut | Premarket ref | Playbook | Price vs playbook | Price vs SR pivots | 0DTE gamma | Trend odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,674.00 | Short | already beyond range, toward target; 25.00 pts to 7,649.00 | between S3 and S2 | Negative (-$36.15B) | 55% |
| NQ | 28,805.75 | Short | already beyond range, toward target; 304.25 pts to 28,501.50 | between S3 and S2 | Negative (-$1.45B) | 55% |
| RTY | 2,852.8 | Short | already beyond range, toward target; 8.6 pts to 2,844.2 | between S2 and S1 | Positive (+$157.20M) | 15% |
TGPivots for today, valid through the 4:30 p.m. ET settlement. S2 and R2 mark the breakdown and breakout zones; S3 and R3 are the extended targets.
| Contract | S3 lower target | S2 breakdown | S1 support | R1 resistance | R2 breakout | R3 upper target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 7,661.25 | 7,686.75 | 7,702.25 | 7,733.25 | 7,748.75 | 7,774.25 |
| NQ | 28,641.25 | 28,910.75 | 29,073.75 | 29,400.25 | 29,563.25 | 29,832.75 |
| YM | 52,220 | 52,348 | 52,426 | 52,582 | 52,660 | 52,788 |
| RTY | 2,836.9 | 2,852.6 | 2,862.1 | 2,880.9 | 2,890.4 | 2,906.1 |
| CL | 99.60 | 101.14 | 102.03 | 103.79 | 104.68 | 106.22 |
| GC | 4,003.3 | 4,018.6 | 4,027.8 | 4,046.2 | 4,055.4 | 4,070.7 |
| SI | 51.520 | 51.895 | 52.125 | 52.575 | 52.805 | 53.180 |
| ZN | 105'239 | 106'026 | 106'090 | 106'220 | 106'284 | 107'071 |
| 6E | 1.11115 | 1.11435 | 1.11625 | 1.12005 | 1.12195 | 1.12515 |
| BTC | 78,725 | 79,745 | 80,350 | 81,570 | 82,175 | 83,195 |
0DTE implications
Negative gamma in both SPX and NDX means intraday moves can extend further than the morning's straddle prices imply. The SPX at-the-money straddle was about 39.5 points, roughly 0.52%, which is smaller than the overnight move already on the board. For 0DTE traders, the walls matter more than the pin on a day like this: the SPX put wall at 7,600 and the NDX put wall at 28,000 are the reference points for a continuation leg. Russell options are the opposite case, with compression between 2,805 and 2,860 RUT. The full three-page gamma map is in today's 0DTE Outlook.
What to watch today
- 8:30 a.m. ET: Q3 Employment Cost Index (released before the open; a wage-cost surprise feeds straight into the rate-hike pricing).
- 9:45 a.m. ET: Chicago PMI for October.
- First 30 minutes: whether NQ holds below S2 (28,910.75) and ES below S2 (7,686.75), or reclaims them.
- 1:00 p.m. ET: Baker Hughes rig count, relevant for the CL long.
- Into the close: month-end rebalancing after a volatile October for tech.
Get the full playbooks
This outlook covers five of the 43 ideas in today's TradeGuidance day-session playbooks, which span index futures, energies, metals, bonds, currencies, crypto, grains and livestock. Subscribers receive all three playbooks with participation ranges, reversal points, targets and Fibonacci anchors before the open, along with the TGPivots map and the 0DTE gamma report. Learn more at tradeguidance.com.
Disclaimer
All investments involve risk. Futures and options trading specifically involve risk; know your financial tolerance before making any trade decision, as you could lose your principal and more. All references in this communication are for educational and guidance purposes only. Trade ideas are derived using technical analysis tools and market-generated information. Use these levels and directions to gauge the possible range of markets, keeping in mind that news and participant sentiment always move price during the session.
0DTE gamma figures are model output built from Schwab option chains using public-style dealer assumptions (calls +, puts −) and prior-session open interest. They are not a measurement of actual dealer positioning. Confirm levels on your own platform before using them. Any action you take using these ideas is your own responsibility.