Highlights of the morning brokerage meeting | Repurchase, increase holdings, refinance, long-term rebound in A-shares, focus on policy support

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on the last trading day (November 2), the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 1.08% to 3638.03 points, the Shenzhen Securities Index rose 1.63% to 11010.68 points, and the GEM index rose 1.87% to 2458.70 points; the turnover of the two markets was 1783.695 billion yuan; it rose 4,681 companies, fell 818 companies, flat 78 companies, and rose and stopped by 120 and 1.

Guosheng Securities believes that the policy of stabilizing A-shares is still being strengthened, and that instrument expansion and incremental measures are worth looking forward to; CITIC Securities believes that “K-type convergence and market breadth expansion” is the most important characteristic in 2027; Huafu Securities believes that AI capital expenditure is being tortured to return, and it is appropriate to use resource dividends to increase the dumbbell strategy of excellent growth; Huayuan Research believes that the “acceleration of revenue and deceleration of profit” in the third quarter of the Beijing Stock Exchange semiconductor chain is a phased characteristic.

Guosheng Securities: Macro | If A-shares are stabilized, will there be a new round of “924”?

Overall, the policy for the past half month has focused on comprehensively and strictly governing the Party, steady growth, stable employment, and financial reform. Specifically, there are five major focuses: one is the conclusion of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, which emphasizes comprehensively and strictly governing the Party, adhering to the Party's overall leadership, promoting the Party's self-revolution, and improving the Party's long-term governing ability; second, 11.2 The Central Bank, the Securities Regulatory Commission, and the General Administration of Financial Supervision will hold meetings to study and promote the use of capital market tools and optimize stock refinancing policies. Reviewing the “924” package policy in 2024, fund and insurance company exchange facilitation, and stock repurchases to increase holdings Loans are two new monetary policy tools, and the Securities Regulatory Commission has issued guidance to promote medium- and long-term capital entry into the market, market value management guidelines for listed companies, and 6 mergers and acquisitions to stabilize the capital market; third, the steady growth policy continues to advance, 800 billion yuan of new policy financial instruments have been launched, and the NDRC has studied and formulated a 2026-2030 strategy implementation plan to expand domestic demand and strengthen consumer infrastructure construction; fourth, the National Standing Committee has deployed childbearing friendly social construction to optimize fiscal, social security, and housing support for families. Intelligence and employment are being developed in a coordinated manner, and the pace of AI application in labor-intensive industries has been steadily grasped; fifth, the Financial Street Forum's annual meeting deepened monetary policy frameworks and capital market reforms, and the central bank then established facilities for large redemptions and swaps between non-banks in the bond market to improve liquidity support under specific risk scenarios.

Other things you can pay attention to: the Central Office and the State Administration have issued documents promoting the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation; cooperation between China and Switzerland, China, Germany, China and Russia; construction of next-generation communication networks; and dual control of industrial carbon emissions. Continuing to remind, keep an eye on 5 major events in the fourth quarter, including: 11.2, one meeting, one meeting, focusing on the expansion of existing tools, optimization of usage conditions, and potential incremental measures to stabilize the stock market; the November 3 US election, focusing on whether the Democratic Party can regain both houses; the November 18-19 Shenzhen APEC meeting, where the highest levels of China, the US and Russia may meet; the December Politburo meeting & Central Economic Work Conference. The 2027 GDP target may be set at “4.5%, working hard to achieve better results in actual work”; whether the US and Iran will raise interest rates on December 9-10 & The Russia-Ukraine situation and oil prices are the key.

CITIC Securities: Strategy | Adjusting the front line, the turning point will come

Market adjustments are already ahead of this year, and structural turnaround will increase next year. In the past, the “falling industry trend = bull to bear” mentality is no longer applicable to this round of AI industry. Currently, AI is still in the early stages of development. Most of the negative externalities have occurred in the short term to other economic sectors, causing prices of various consumer goods to skyrocket, siphon bond market capital to drive a sharp rise in long-term interest rates to suppress non-AI demand, and agents are still squeezing out employment to a certain extent. The intersection of these issues has led to sharp economic and market differentiation. In the strongest phase of the AI bull market, the non-AI sector has generally entered a downward trend ahead of schedule and experienced deep valuation adjustments. However, because of this, if AI investment slows down in the future, there is no reason for us to continue to be pessimistic about the non-AI sector. If AI enters a recuperation period, the non-AI sector is expected to usher in a turning point. Falling interest rates, falling material prices, and policy rebalancing are all conducive to market balance.

“K-type convergence and market breadth expansion” is probably the most important market characteristic in 2027. We expect internal trends in the technology sector to diverge, the non-AI sector has extensive structural repair opportunities, and the main process of valuation contraction will be completed in 2026. It will take time to clear the financial side, and investors will gradually return to reasonable return expectations. The steady return strategy represented by PB-ROE is superior to the boom strategy, and there may be a major shift in style. In terms of configuration, it is necessary to be moderately scattered to deal with the four themes of steady returns, excellent overseas manufacturing, domestic demand restoration, and new AI technology.

Huafu Securities: Strategy | AI Capital Expense Return Questioning

The market fluctuated and adjusted this week (10/26-10/30), and all A closed down -5.85%. Judging from the index situation, the China Securities Dividend led the way, with the GEM Index and Science Innovation 50 having the highest declines. Judging from the stylistic situation, financial real estate led the way, and technology led the decline. This week, the 31 Shenwan Tier 1 industries rose less and fell more, with banking, petroleum and petrochemicals, food and beverage leading the way, and computers, electronics, and communications leading the decline.

Market Watch: (1) Market valuation: The equity yield spread rose to 1.5%, between +1 standard deviation and +2 standard deviation. The valuation differentiation coefficient has increased. (2) Market sentiment: Market sentiment rises and the intensity of industry rotation decreases. The market style dominates, and the micro market index outperforms the market. The theme popularity mainly focuses on bank selection, shipping selection, and central enterprise banks. (3) Market structure: Market volume can increase month-on-month. Banks, transportation, petroleum and petrochemical stocks account for the highest share, and there may be alpha opportunities within beauty care, machinery and equipment, and non-ferrous metals. (4) Market capital: Land Stock Connect's average weekly daily turnover this week increased by 6.289 billion yuan compared to last week. This week, Land Stock Connect's average weekly transactions increased by 989,400 compared to last week. There was a net outflow of leveraged capital of 86.98 billion yuan. The main inflow industries were beauty care, petroleum and petrochemicals, textiles and apparel. ETF funds have played more of a supporting role in hedging capital outflows. The main index ETF changed 56.79 billion shares. Among them, the A500, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 were more popular. The average share of newly established partial equity funds this week was 5.76 billion shares per day, down 9.6% year on year, up 60.1% from last week.

Huayuan Research: Industry｜The Beijing Stock Exchange semiconductor chain is superior, and automobiles and commercial aerospace are under pressure

We conducted a three-quarterly data analysis of 48 automobile industry chain companies, 27 semiconductor industry chain companies, and 14 commercial aerospace industry chain companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange. We believe that the “acceleration of revenue and deceleration of profit” in 2026Q3 of the Beijing Stock Exchange semiconductor industry chain is a phased characteristic of “volume compensation+cost preemption” rather than weakening on the demand side. The “increase in revenue does not increase profit” in the Beijing Stock Exchange automobile industry chain is due to price and cost squeezing in both directions. The Q3 profit recovery stems from the cost side rather than the quality of operations. The sharp decline in Q3 profit in the Beijing Stock Exchange commercial aerospace industry chain is due to a mismatch in the pace of revenue confirmation, and the pace of follow-up order fulfillment and revenue confirmation is expected to accelerate.