Why Shares of AST SpaceMobile Slipped 27% Last Month
Key Points
AST SpaceMobile keeps seeing delays in getting its satellites into orbit.
The company is currently burning a lot of cash.
Shares look expensive, even after this drop.
Shares of AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) fell 26.8% last month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. The potentially disruptive satellite internet operator has slipped because it is falling behind in getting satellites into orbit and faces a threat from SpaceX.
The stock is now down 71% from its highs, and fell a further 27% in October. Here's why, and whether now could be a good time to buy the dip.
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Slow satellite deployments and cash burn
With large-array satellites, AST SpaceMobile believes it has developed the capability to beam satellite internet directly to mobile devices from low Earth orbit. The technology has been validated with numerous tests, which is why investors have bid the stock up so much from the lows.
However, even if the technology works, it still requires numerous satellites in orbit to provide fully functional satellite internet coverage. According to management, it will need at least 45 in orbit, up from only 13 today, for the service to begin working in the United States and a select few other markets. To do so, it needs to hitch a ride on a rocket launch service, specifically SpaceX.
The problem is, there is a huge bottleneck of satellites waiting to get deployed into orbit, including from its launch provider SpaceX and the Starlink satellite internet service. Elon Musk says Starlink will start providing direct-to-smartphone service, which could compete with AST SpaceMobile before it even gets off the ground.
For the time being, AST SpaceMobile is generating little revenue and has heavy cash burn. Last quarter alone, it had negative free cash flow of $719 million.
Image source: Getty Images.
Time to buy the dip?
After this stock price collapse, AST SpaceMobile trades at a market cap of $15 billion. This is still a significant premium over its trailing revenue, which isn't much.
In theory, AST SpaceMobile will be able to quickly scale revenue when its satellite internet service is operational, which it plans to sell through telecommunications providers. However, not everyone in the world will want or need extra satellite internet coverage beyond what they get from mobile and at-home providers.
For this reason, it is likely that AST SpaceMobile will be a niche offering. Even if it can start scaling revenue, the stock looks overvalued today. At $1 billion in revenue, it would have a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 15, and likely a high price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) once you account for its heavy cost base. For this reason, investors should avoid buying AST SpaceMobile stock right now.
Brett Schafer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile. The Motley Fool recommends Space Exploration Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.