Crude Holds Its 20 Day Into Election Results as Nat Gas Retests Its Contract Low
Barchart·11/03/2026 10:13:05
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Top 3 Things to Watch into the Energy Close
December crude at the 20 day, $97.11: A settlement above it would keep the uptrend intact and could open $98.84, then $100.56. A settlement below today’s $96.12 low could open Monday’s $95.20 low and the lower edge of the rising wedge near $92.70.
Election results tonight: A result seen as clearing the way for renewed strikes could lift December back through $98.84. A result seen as strengthening the push for a deal could press it toward $95.20.
December nat gas at $2.85: A settlement below the contract low would extend the selloff into new territory. A settlement above Monday’s $2.94 high would be the first sign the selling is slowing and could open $3.00.
Energy Cross Asset Note
Crude is steadying after Monday’s 7.4% drop, its largest in three months, which erased about half of October’s rally in one session. The two sides are still talking but remain far apart. Iran’s president says the supreme leader has given his government more authority to negotiate, and the president hinted at progress and signaled no plans to resume strikes after today’s vote. But Tehran wants the blockade lifted, sanctions eased, and frozen assets released before fully reopening Hormuz, while Washington wants concessions on Iran’s nuclear program. Smaller-scale fighting continues, including a US strike on Iran’s Qeshm Island at the mouth of Hormuz on Monday. The bigger shift may be on the supply side. Saudi Arabia’s state oil company says it will maximize production this quarter after October exports returned to about 7 million barrels a day, near prewar levels, and it stands ready to go to full capacity of 12 million barrels a day if needed. The UAE and Iraq are also back near prewar export rates. At the same time, global storage remains extremely low after months of emergency releases, demand is expected to grow next year, and inventories will need rebuilding once the war ends. Some large traders see demand falling sharply at these prices, and Germany has proposed caps on gasoline and diesel prices. Monday’s slide hit heating oil hardest in six months and knocked European gas down almost 9%. Today is Election Day, with results arriving after the close, and the outcome may shape the timeline for any renewed military action. In nat gas, December reversed Monday’s early bounce and settled at a new contract low as oil and European gas fell. There’s an early sign producers may be responding: Lower-48 output fell over the weekend to slightly below last year, led by Appalachia and an estimated 6.8% drop in the Permian. Forecasts still call for above-normal temperatures across most of the country through mid-November, and the next storage report is Thursday. Globally, the IEA warned gas markets may stay tight into 2027, with Europe at risk of ending winter at record-low storage and global LNG supply on track for its steepest annual decline on record. For clients, crude is sitting right on its 20 day ahead of an election that could move it several dollars overnight, so smaller size and defined risk matter more than direction. In nat gas, the trend is still lower, but supply cuts and an oversold market with a record short position are the ingredients for a sharp bounce, which favors selling rallies rather than lows.
Crude Oil - The Setup
Crude Oil - The Technicals
CRUDE OIL
Current Price: December WTI (CLEZ26) $97.54, up $1.07 (1.11%) | Session high $98.69, low $96.12
Chart Setup
Monday’s $7.66 drop from Friday’s $104.12 settle confirmed the failure at the top of the rising wedge, and December settled at $96.46, just under the 20 day. This morning’s bounce has lifted it back above the 20 day at $97.11, but the high of $98.69 stalled just under the October 23 low at $98.84, which now works as resistance from below. The 20 day is the line in the sand for the uptrend that started in early August. Below it, Monday’s low near $95.20 is the first support, then the lower edge of the wedge near $92.70, with the rising 50 day at $91.93 just beneath.
Key Levels Above
$102.75 (Monday high)
$101.40 (old breakout point)
$100.56 (October 29 low)
$99.75 (October 28 low)
$98.84 (October 23 low, with today’s high at $98.69)
Current Price: $97.54
Key Levels Below
$97.11 (20 day)
$96.46 (Monday settle)
$96.12 (today’s low)
$95.20 (Monday low)
$92.70 (lower edge of the rising wedge)
Bias
The 20 day at $97.11 is the level to manage against. A settlement above it keeps the uptrend intact and opens $98.84, with $100.56 above that. A settlement below today’s $96.12 low would put December back under the 20 day and open $95.20, then the lower edge of the wedge near $92.70. With the election results landing after the close, overnight swings of several dollars are possible in either direction. Sidelined traders may get a cleaner read by waiting for tomorrow’s settlement than by trading the middle of today’s range.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.02.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
Natural Gas - The Setup
Natural Gas - The Technicals
NATURAL GAS
Current Price: December Natural Gas (NGEZ26) $2.90, up $0.04 (1.44%) | Session high $2.91, low $2.85
Chart Setup
Monday’s early bounce to $2.94 failed, and December settled at $2.86, its lowest close on the contract. This morning retested Monday’s $2.85 low and held by two-tenths of a cent before bouncing to $2.90. One retest isn’t a turn, but it’s the first time in a week the low hasn’t given way. Momentum is deeply oversold. The lower edge of the falling channel that has guided December since May is now near $3.10, lining up with the prior contract low, and it’s the main resistance overhead. All four averages are well above price, with the 20 day at $3.24 below a falling 50 day at $3.37.
Key Levels Above
$3.10 (lower edge of the falling channel, prior contract low)
$3.00 (last Thursday’s break)
$2.95 (October 29 settle)
$2.94 (Monday high)
$2.91 (today’s high)
Current Price: $2.90
Key Levels Below
$2.86 (Monday settle)
$2.85 (contract low, retested today)
Bias
Monday’s $2.94 high is the level to manage against. A settlement above it would be the first sign the selling is slowing and opens $3.00, with the channel edge at $3.10 above that. A settlement below the $2.85 contract low extends the selloff into new territory with nothing underneath. For sidelined traders, the trend still points lower, but selling at the contract low in a market this oversold carries poor risk. A rally into $3.00 to $3.10 gives sellers a better entry with risk defined above the channel edge.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 11.02.26)
Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y
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