Capital Group: Total global dividends reached US$546 billion in the third quarter and raised the annual dividend forecast to US$2.24 trillion
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the “Dividend Watch” report released by Capital Group, the total global dividend for the third quarter of 2026 reached 546 billion US dollars, setting a record for the third quarter of previous years, with a 7.5% year-on-year increase. After adjustments for exchange rates, special dividends and other technical factors, the core growth rate for the first nine months of this year was 7.0%. Up to 88% of companies increased or maintained their dividends, with a median dividend increase of 5.9%. The data reflects an overall improvement in the overall dividend momentum, rather than being driven only by a few very large dividend payout companies. Total dividends increased moderately by 4.9% in the third quarter, mainly hampered by negative effects of foreign exchange fluctuations and a one-off special dividend of nearly US$7 billion compared to the same period last year.
Judging from the geographical distribution, the pace of global dividend growth varies, but the overall trend is still positive. The US core growth rate recorded 5.8%, with 96% of companies maintaining or increasing their dividends. The UK is one of the best-performing major markets, recording a core growth rate of 13.2%, driven by a recovery in mining profits and higher dividend payouts in the banking sector. Australia is also benefiting from a recovery in the mining industry, while China's performance is lagging behind the global average.
The combined growth rate of core dividends in Hong Kong and China reached 5.5% in the third quarter, with total dividends totaling US$83.7 billion. Hong Kong's core growth rate reached 6.9%, outperforming the regional average. The total dividend payout reached US$9.4 billion. Total dividends were mainly driven by strong dividends from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and major financial institutions, reflecting the good growth momentum of the financial industry. In contrast, the real estate industry continues to be pressured by high borrowing costs and sluggish market activity, making it the weakest performance among major industries. Overall, dividend growth in the market remains steady, but the growth momentum is mainly concentrated on a few large companies.
In China, the share of companies that recorded dividend growth or flat dividend growth was 66%, and the median dividend growth was 5.4%. The chemical industry and mining industry together contributed nearly a quarter of the increase, while the financial sector accounted for about one-third. Dividend growth in China is still fragmented. The level of dividends is heavily influenced by profit performance and established dividend policies, leading to a widening gap in performance between companies and industries.
In view of the better-than-expected dividend performance for the third quarter, Capital Group raised its 2026 global dividend forecast to US$2.24 trillion. The total dividend and core growth rate are currently expected to be 6.8%, higher than the 6.4% and 6.0% forecast respectively three months ago. The outlook for the fourth quarter also improved, thanks to steady corporate earnings performance and strong cash-flow creativity in the finance, mining and technology sectors.