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    What Nexi (BIT:NEXI)'s Digital Euro Role Means For Shareholders

    Simply Wall St·11/07/2026 00:33:25
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    • Nexi reported an acceleration in Q3 2026 revenue growth to around 4% underlying, led by Merchant Solutions, while keeping total costs up only 2% year to date despite inflation and higher payment volumes.
    • The European Central Bank selected Nexi to provide digital euro network connectivity, positioning the group as a key payments infrastructure provider and opening a new stream of connectivity and processing fees tied to future central bank digital currency activity.
    • The next step is to see how this faster underlying growth, helped by the ECB digital euro contract, could reshape Nexi's investment narrative.

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    Nexi Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Nexi, you need to believe that underlying digital payments activity can keep building through Italy, Germany and the wider network while reported figures gradually line up with that momentum. The Q3 2026 update points in that direction, with about 4% underlying revenue growth and costs up only 2% year to date despite higher payment volumes.

    The near term hinge remains whether Merchant Solutions can translate transaction growth into clean reported numbers as bank contract headwinds ease. The biggest operational risk still comes from those contracts staying a heavy drag for longer, which could keep reported growth muted even with the ECB digital euro work ramping up.

    The most relevant announcement tied to the recent news is Nexi being selected by the European Central Bank for digital euro network connectivity. That decision confirms Nexi as part of the plumbing for potential central bank digital currency payments and adds a fresh line of project and connectivity fees to watch.

    For catalysts, this ECB role now sits alongside the existing cost efficiency program and platform consolidation, including shutting down 25 platforms and cutting the data centre footprint by around 45 to 50%. Execution risk is real, especially with an unprofitable base today, but these projects and the digital euro work are where operational upside is most visible.

    Nexi's current analyst narrative points to forecast revenues of €3.9 billion and earnings of €580.0 million by 2029. These projections are based on an assumed yearly revenue decline of 14.8% and an earnings swing of roughly €4.0 billion, from a loss of €3.4 billion today to that forecast profit level.

    Uncover why Nexi's fair value indicates a 9% potential downside to its current price, leaving little room for error.

    BIT:NEXI 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    BIT:NEXI 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    One alternate view zooms in on Nexi’s use of its roughly €750m excess cash and argues that slow reinvestment into ISV and SME channels could keep revenue nearer the bearish €3.4b and earnings around €531.5m by 2029. Those analysts were already cautious before this ECB digital euro decision, so their story may shift as details emerge.

    Explore 3 other Nexi fair value estimates, including one that suggests up to 9% downside from the current price.

    Form Your Own Verdict

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