Agenus Inc. Just Reported A Surprise Profit And Analysts Updated Their Estimates
Investors in Agenus Inc. (NASDAQ:AGEN) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.5% to close at US$7.15 following the release of its quarterly results. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and earnings both coming in very strong. Revenues were 12% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$32m, while the company also delivered a surprise statutory profit, against analyst expectations of a loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Agenus' three analysts is for revenues of US$116.0m in 2027, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$0.66 in 2027, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$116.0m and US$0.24 per share in losses. While next year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a very substantial increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
Check out our latest analysis for Agenus
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$26.33, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Agenus at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Agenus' past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2027 compared to the historical decline of 20% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 22% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Agenus is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Agenus. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Agenus. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Agenus going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 6 warning signs for Agenus (4 are concerning!) that we have uncovered.
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