Walsh Daily Bullet Points 11/9
GRAINS
- Corn up 1½ to 1¾ overnight after settling 4.41½ Friday, with Wednesday’s four-month low at 4.38½ still the line
- Positioning— funds are now net short corn by 22,900 contracts, having cut 28,380 longs and added 50,463 shorts in the week ended Nov 3
- Saxo’s Ole Hansen, corn has gone from a record net long of 431,000 contracts to a net short of 23,000 on an 18% price slump since September
- The combined grains and oilseeds net long is down to 166,000 contracts, an 83% reduction in six weeks
- Open interest rose another 18,644 Friday
- USDA Crop Production and WASDE land Tuesday, with corn expected to see a modest yield cut
- Wheat down 2 to 3¼ in Chicago and 3 to 4¼ in KC after Friday’s 8-cent break to 5.91¼, the lowest since June
- Net shorts grew again in both Chicago and KC wheat
- Russia, Ukraine and US negotiators meet this week for the first time since February, with security guarantees at the top of the agenda
- Short covering is seen as likely once the talks are out of the way
- Rain for the lower Great Lakes and interior Northeast today and again Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the rest of the country mostly dry
- Frost advisories across the Tennessee Valley and parts of the Southeast, with mild to unseasonably warm air elsewhere
OILSEEDS
- Beans up 1¼ to 1½ overnight after settling 11.93¾ Friday, bouncing off Thursday’s low of 11.84
- Meal down 1.40 to 1.80 overnight, soyoil up 20 to 25 points
- Funds cut their net long in beans by 52,601 contracts, or 28%, to 132,799 in the week ended Nov 3
- USDA is expected to nudge the soybean yield higher again Tuesday, with StoneX at 55 bushels against the current record 53.1
- Crush is about $1.93, down from $2.47 in late October, with meal back as the larger half of product value
- Soybean oil has closed below its 200-day moving average every session since Oct 28
- Malaysian palm fell another 2.72% and is at its lowest since March after Indonesia cut its November reference price more than 6% and lowered its export levy
- Palm oil competes with soybean oil, so lower palm prices are dragging on soybean oil
- Brazil should see a good mix of rain and sunshine across the center west, center south and far south over the next two weeks, erratic but enough to support crop development
- Open interest Friday: beans +3,556, meal +7,472, soyoil −2,633
- China extended its trade truce with the US by two months to Jan 10, suspending the 24% retaliatory tariff and holding off on port fees
- Bessent and Greer pressed China on implementing its commitments, specifically naming agricultural purchases, with Trump and Xi expected to meet in Shenzhen later this month
LIVESTOCK
- Live cattle fell 35 cents to 214.05 Friday after hitting an 11-month low early, finishing the week down $6.90
- January feeders lost 1.95 to 318.375 after a six-week low, down $13.40 on the week
- Two straight weeks of heavy losses, driven by weak cash trade and the stock market selloff
- Cash cattle averaged $217.26 for steers and $217.56 for heifers last week, against $227.06 two weeks ago
- Hogs fell 1.575 to 53.525, another contract low, down $5.35 on the week
- Monday’s CME hog index is down another $1.29 at $61.57, leaving futures about $8 under cash
SOFTS
- Cotton rose 40 to 79.11, closing higher two days running and back above 78 cents
- Coffee up 2.85 to 280.00
- Sugar down 32 to 18.24, still sliding with crude
- Cocoa down 23 to 5,267 in the March contract
FINANCIALS
- Crude sharply lower, WTI down nearly 3% to $88.19, after Trump said over the weekend that extensive strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely”
- He tied that to Iran signing a strong agreement, while Rubio played down any imminent breakthrough and called Tehran’s demands “outrageous and ridiculous”
- Stock futures point higher after last week’s steep selloff
- Nvidia has opened an investigation into whether CEO Jensen Huang shared company or national security information with an executive suspected of links to Chinese intelligence
- 10-year Treasury yield 4.86%
- Dollar index down 0.5%
CURRENCIES
- Dollar index lower by 0.5% to start the week
- The China truce extension and the Shenzhen meeting later this month are the things to watch
SETTLEMENTS
- Dec corn 4.41½ (+1½) · Dec Chicago wheat 5.91¼ (−8) · Dec KC wheat 6.32½ (−3¼)
- Jan beans 11.93¾ (+5½) · Dec meal 319.20 (+2.00) · Dec soyoil 62.26 (+0.02) · Jan canola 752.20 (−1.00)
- Dec live cattle 214.05 (−0.35) · Jan feeders 318.375 (−1.95) · Dec hogs 53.525 (−1.575)
- Dec cotton 79.11 (+0.40) · Mar sugar 18.24 (−0.32) · Dec coffee 280.00 (+2.85) · Mar cocoa 5,267 (−23)
- Crush (Dec): about $1.93— meal 50.6%, oil 49.4%
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