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    Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Could Be 14% Undervalued After Its Core Deposit Growth Story

    Simply Wall St·11/10/2026 06:22:30
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    Valley National Bancorp (VLY) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the stock with a one-month return of 13.3% and a past three-month decline of 3.2%, sharpening focus on its valuation profile.

    At a share price of US$14.30, Valley National Bancorp has seen momentum cool slightly over the past week despite a strong 1-month share price return and a solid year to date gain. A 1-year total shareholder return of 34.27% and a very large 3-year total shareholder return of 109.11% point to investors reassessing both its earnings power and perceived risk over a longer stretch.

    See how Valley National Bancorp compares with other banks by reviewing our hand picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results)

    Valley National Bancorp now trades at a sizeable discount to both analyst targets and an estimated fair value after that sharp 1 month rebound. Is the market rightly cautious, or mispricing the recovery story?

    Most Popular Narrative: 13.7% Undervalued

    Against Valley National Bancorp's last close at $14.30, the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St anchors fair value at about $16.57, pointing to a discount that the market has not fully closed yet.

    Valley National Bancorp's accelerating growth in commercial and specialty deposit accounts is now underscored by about US$4.5b of new core deposits over the 12 months to Q2 2026 and the expected addition of US$2.1b of low cost Bluevine small business deposits, which supports a lower loans to deposit profile and can lift net interest margin and net interest income as higher cost brokered funding is replaced.

    See why 30 investors see Valley National Bancorp as 14% undervalued.

    The Narrative rests on a discount rate of 7.24% to bring those future cash flows and earnings back into today's dollars. That is a relatively moderate hurdle, so a lot rides on whether the planned mix shift toward core, lower cost deposits and relationship lending actually shows up in reported net interest income and fee revenue over the next few years.

    On price alone, there is a clear gap. The analyst fair value of roughly $16.57 and the separate Simply Wall St DCF estimate of $24.05 both sit above the current $14.30 share price, while the consensus 12 month price target of $17.04 implies the market is treating the recent earnings and revenue growth with some caution.

    For you as an investor, the key tension is straightforward. Reported earnings have grown faster than the wider US market and the US banks sector, and revenue is forecast to increase at 16.6% per year, yet return on equity is described as low at 9.3% today and is expected to reach only 11.7% in three years. That profile can justify a discount if profitability and capital returns do not improve, even if the growth line looks healthy.

    Result: Fair Value of $16.57 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the Valley National Bancorp story can break if geographic concentration in New Jersey, New York and Florida becomes a problem or if loan profitability stays weaker than peers.

    Find out about the key risks to this Valley National Bancorp narrative.

    Next Steps

    Curious whether the optimistic tone around Valley National Bancorp matches your own read of the numbers? Act quickly and review the full picture of potential upsides in the 4 key rewards.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Valley National Bancorp?

    If Valley National Bancorp has sharpened your focus on opportunity and risk, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist using targeted stock ideas from our screeners.