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    Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) Has The Market Looking Closer, What Is Behind It?

    Simply Wall St·11/11/2026 02:37:50
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    Woodside Energy Group (ASX:WDS) has drawn fresh attention after signing a long term LNG supply agreement with QatarEnergy, covering 3 million metric tons annually from its planned Louisiana LNG project.

    That LNG deal lands at a time when Woodside Energy Group’s short term share price momentum has cooled, with the 30 day share price return down 4.89% and the 90 day share price return down 6.22%. However, the year to date share price return of 29.92% and the 5 year total shareholder return of 101.24% still point to a strong longer term record.

    Scan how other LNG heavyweights and energy producers are priced and positioned today by reviewing the hand picked list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (12 results) alongside Woodside Energy Group.

    Woodside Energy Group now combines a sizeable LNG contract pipeline with a share price that has cooled in recent months. The key issue is whether that mix still leaves the stock attractively valued today.

    Most Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued

    Set against the last close of A$30.74, the leading narrative for Woodside Energy Group pegs fair value at A$36.60, which implies meaningful upside and puts the Louisiana LNG contract into a wider context of existing LNG and oil production.

    According to Jamesiskindacool, an investor in the Simply Wall St Community, the valuation rests on current operations, near term output and the progress of key projects already under way, rather than blue sky assumptions about every future development.

    At A$36.602 per share, Woodside Energy Group (ASX: WDS) appears reasonably valued based on its existing operations and near-term production growth. Woodside reports in US dollars and recorded 2025 operating revenue of US$12.9 billion, underlying profit of US$2.65 billion and earnings of US$1.43 per share. Using an assumed exchange rate of US$0.70 per Australian dollar gives earnings of approximately A$2.04 per share and a P/E ratio of around 18 times.

    See why 22 investors see Woodside Energy Group as 16% undervalued.

    Set against Woodside Energy Group’s A$30.74 share price, that A$36.60 fair value implies the stock is 16% below where this assessment places it, using a 7.00% discount rate to bring projected cash flows from producing fields and near term projects back to today’s terms.

    The narrative also flags higher net debt as capital is committed to Scarborough, Trion and Louisiana LNG, plus exposure to commodity prices, costs, timing risk and regulation. This means investors still need to judge whether that 16% gap compensates for the funding and execution questions around such a large LNG and oil portfolio.

    Result: Fair Value of A$36.60 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, higher net debt around US$9.3b and exposure to construction costs and project delays could quickly challenge this view that Woodside Energy Group is 16% undervalued.

    Find out about the key risks to this Woodside Energy Group narrative.

    Next Steps

    Mixed signals on Woodside Energy Group so far. If the mix of risks and bright spots has you curious, now is the time to review the underlying data yourself and weigh up the trade off. To frame that decision with both caution and optimism, get the full picture across 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Woodside Energy Group?

    If Woodside Energy Group has sharpened your focus, now is the moment to scan other opportunities before they move beyond reach.