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    Churchill Downs (CHDN) Raised Its Dividend And Buyback, Is The Stock Still A Bargain?

    Simply Wall St·11/11/2026 02:36:38
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    Churchill Downs (CHDN) just delivered third quarter earnings with revenue of US$696 million and net income of US$80 million, along with a 7% higher annual dividend and a new US$750 million buyback authorization.

    Churchill Downs shares have reacted quickly to the earnings, dividend raise, and fresh buyback news, with a 30 day share price return of 26.66% and a 90 day gain of 14.57%, even though the year to date share price return is still down 8.92%.

    Scan beyond Churchill Downs and see how it compares with other companies returning cash to shareholders and buying back stock through our hand picked 5 dividend fortresses

    Bulls point to earnings momentum, steady dividend lifts, and a fresh US$750 million buyback as proof Churchill Downs still has room to run. Bears see a hot 26.66% 30 day surge and ask whether the valuation already reflects it.

    Most Popular Narrative: 19% Undervalued

    On the analyst consensus Narrative on Simply Wall St, Churchill Downs is tagged with a fair value of $126.33 versus a last close of $101.96. This frames the stock as undervalued and places extra weight on how the business plan is executed from here.

    Strategic review and potential sale of nine regional gaming properties is expected to recycle capital into higher return projects at Churchill Downs Racetrack, core HRM assets, and share repurchases. This could reshape the revenue mix toward businesses that have historically supported stronger EBITDA margins and free cash flow generation.

    See why 8 investors see Churchill Downs as 19% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $126.33 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, Churchill Downs faces real pressure if the planned regional casino sales stumble, or if Derby and Thoroughbred Championship Series monetization falls short of current expectations.

    Find out about the key risks to this Churchill Downs narrative.

    Next Steps

    Reading this mix of optimism and caution around Churchill Downs, it makes sense to move fast, check the underlying data, and decide where you stand. To weigh both the upside and the red flags side by side, start with the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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