CITIC Construction Investment: The diversification of the new energy industry depends on the boom, and the 2027 market is already under low expectations
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that in '26, with the overall acceleration of energy storage and AIDC, the power equipment new energy industry entered a new upward cycle and was fulfilled on the performance side; looking ahead to 2027, the market is already in low expectations, and the high energy boom driven by high oil prices and AI will continue: ① Under AI demand and high oil prices, global power grids, especially European and American power grids, will continue to increase investment ② The aforementioned cost adjustment and grid transformation will further boost electricity prices and open up space for energy storage demand in the long term. ③ AI is driving the growth rate of global electricity consumption, the importance of low-carbon high-density power supplies (ocean wind, SOFC, nuclear power, combustion engines) will also increase, and the data center power supply model will shift to high voltage. ④ Demand for electricity backup and replacement of old energy sources such as new energy vehicles and energy storage has increased significantly due to rising overseas oil and gas prices and economic requirements.
CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:
Looking ahead to 2027, the market's current pricing for new energy sources already includes pessimistic growth expectations, while continued high oil prices and the acceleration of power generation side construction driven by AI will maintain a high boom. It is expected that the installed scale of global and domestic new energy will continue to rise
1. As AI demand and oil and gas prices rise, European and American power grids will continue to increase investment, and new energy sources will continue to expand with their autonomous and controllable advantages. Currently, Europe and emerging markets are experiencing an acceleration in power grid construction due to rigid demand, rising gas and oil prices, and unstable power supply. Global PV restoration in 2027 will maintain a high increase in sea breezes; the power supply gap will continue until 2028 due to the high increase in US AI electricity consumption.
2. New energy sources have forced a sharp increase in grid investment, and the long-term trend in electricity prices has opened up room for long-term demand for energy storage. The increase in the penetration rate of new energy sources will force a steady increase in global power grid investment. Ultimately, it will also be reflected in an increase in terminal electricity costs, which will drive the long-term upward trend in terminal electricity prices. The growth in global energy storage demand will resonate, and will also push the lithium battery industry to maintain high growth.
3. Economic requirements accelerate as overseas oil and gas prices rise. Anti-globalization and tight supply of energy resources have led to increased power supply instability, leading to ① a significant increase in demand for backup electricity; ② acceleration of alternatives to oil vehicles, diesel power generation, etc. due to economic requirements.
4. AI-driven data center power density has increased dramatically, and low-carbon high-density power supplies have become essential and scarce production capacity. Currently, mainstream energy sources such as photovoltaics and land wind occupy a large area of land. In the future, high-density, low-cost power sources will gradually be released, including ocean wind, SOFC, combustion engines, nuclear power, etc.
5. High-reliability power supplies have become a trend, triggering a revolution in new technology. AI has brought about technological changes under the high reliability and stability requirements of power supplies. On the one hand, AIDC power supply efficiency and reliability requirements have improved, and SST combined with 800VHVDC will become the ultimate solution in the future. On the other hand, energy storage provides capacity for AIDC, and demand for AIDC storage will also explode in the future.
Judging from the 2026 industry selection strategy, using the difference in supply and demand growth, each industry was comprehensively rated based on the supply and demand ratio of each industry and marginal changes in the pattern. AIDC, large storage, household storage, lithium battery materials, sea breeze, power equipment going overseas, and UHV ratings for power equipment are high. It is recommended to focus on it.
Energy storage: Demand for large overseas storage will continue to rise. Household storage & commercial storage are currently undervalued by the market
Since 2026, global demand for energy storage has maintained a high increase of more than 50%, but it has fallen slightly short of expectations under high domestic demand, mainly due to narrowing of peak and valley price differences in the northwest region, rising system operating costs, and slow implementation progress in capacity electricity prices in various provinces, etc.; looking ahead to 2027, the world is expected to add 616 GWh of energy storage installed, +31% year over year. Driven by new scenarios such as lithium carbonate price cuts, increased demand in North China, Northeast China, South China, and computing power collaboration, the bank expects 290 GWh of domestic energy storage in 2027, +21%; the boom in overseas storage demand will continue to rise. It is expected that overseas energy storage installed demand will continue to rise. It is estimated that in '27, the installed demand for overseas energy storage is 326 GWH, +42% year over year. Multiple factors are expected to drive overseas energy storage to exceed expectations: ① increased fluctuations in electricity prices and an increase in the abandonment rate; ② significant increase in oil and gas energy and electricity price centers; ③ growth in AI computing power and industrial electricity demand; ④ system cost reduction to increase project returns.
In terms of targets, we recommend Sunshine Power, Haibo Sichuang, Deye Co., Ltd., and other integrated companies pay attention to Artes, etc.
Lithium battery: demand is still the core contradiction, and the market's overly pessimistic pricing will usher in a correction of expectations
The bank believes that it is expected to achieve a growth rate of 28% + under neutral expectations next year. The certainty mainly comes from: ① the low base of domestic vehicles and the withdrawal of the 28-year electric vehicle purchase tax halving policy; ② commercial vehicles and exports are still growing steadily; ③ high expectations for overseas energy storage hedge against low domestic storage expectations; ④ the rapid launch of pan-commercial applications (ships, construction machinery, etc.). Using the 21%-29% growth rate of lithium battery demand in 2027, copper foil supply grew 15% in the midstream sector, where supply and demand are the most tight and sustainable. It is expected that capacity utilization will continue to increase year-on-year; followed by wet diaphragms and aluminum foil, with a supply growth rate of 23%/25%.
Investment suggestions: ① Judging from competitiveness and pattern, batteries are still the best link in the midstream, and the Ningde era is already at a low historical valuation level after adjustments; ② From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply and demand for copper foil is the most tight and sustainable in the midstream sector, followed by diaphragms and aluminum foil. ③ In terms of sodium electricity, large-scale energy storage will become the first battleground for commercialization of sodium electricity. Under the advantages of cost, low temperature performance, and safety, the sodium electricity demand is expected to reach 9 GWh in 26, of which the energy storage requirement is 4 GWh and the power demand is 2.5 GWh; in 30 years, sodium electricity demand can reach 492 GWh, of which the energy storage demand is 323 GWh and the power demand is 153 GWh; ④ On the solid state side, all battery manufacturers are basically expecting small-batch production or demonstration loading in 2027. The pilot line is gradually transitioning from 100 MWh to the GWh level. Sulfide path convergence Oxides are the main route in the semi-solid transition phase.
Target recommendations include Ningde Times, Everweft Lithium Energy, Telford Technology, Hailiang Co., Ltd., Jiayuan Technology, Enjie Co., Ltd., Xingyuan Materials, Dingsheng New Materials, and Shangtai Technology.
Power equipment: focus on the three main lines of high voltage+export+AIDC
The high voltage boom is being realized as scheduled: Q3 has maintained a high level of cashout, and the UHV tender amount has surpassed the full year of 2025. Domestic high-voltage equipment delivery progressed steadily in 26Q3. For example, delivery of high-voltage equipment such as Pinggao Electric, China Western Electric, and TBEA continued to increase in volume and profit. It is expected that market confidence will continue to increase as new line approval+new batches of UHV tenders advance.
Exports have both high prosperity and strong fundamentals in the long run. From January to September 2026, transformer exports increased 25%, continuing high growth. The boom remains the same, but short-term performance was affected by exchange and depreciation, and the recent North American ban increased uncertainty.
AIDC's high demand was fulfilled. The leading company 26Q3 continued to get good orders in the data center field. The 800V iteration gradually promoted the implementation of the industry, and the implementation progress will become an important catalyst.
Recommended attention: UHV Pinggao Electric, Xu Ji Electric, Guodian Nanrui, China Xidian, TBEA, etc.; the North American export chain Siyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, Jinpan Technology, Shenma Electric, Middle East and North America Terad, TBEA, Igor, etc. The AIDC chain focuses on leading companies such as Dongfang Electric, Sifang Co., Ltd., Jinpan Technology, and Sunshine Power.
Wind power: The growth rate is superior, and stock price restoration requires profit and order fulfillment
Domestic and foreign wind power installed demand is rising in the medium to long term, and domestic wind power installations are generally stable in the short term. From January to September 2026, 60.66 GW was added, down 0.7% year on year. From January to October 2026, new domestic bids were added for 89.29 GW, an increase of 4% year on year; it is expected that new domestic wind power installations will be around 116.5/117 GW respectively in 2026/2027; domestic ocean wind is affected by project approval, and there is an expected downward risk of installation in 2027, but bidding will improve marginally. Looking ahead to the “15th Five-Year Plan”, the average annual domestic installed capacity is expected to reach about 126 GW, and the industry will maintain a slight annual growth rate; the domestic and foreign ocean wind market is still the fastest growing market in the medium to long term, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%; in addition, demand for land wind in emerging markets is expected to grow rapidly, and the compound growth rate of new installed capacity is expected to reach more than 10% in 2025-2030.
The capital expenditure of the 22 A-share wind power sample companies increased 17.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2026, but the increase mainly came from Goldwind, Daikin, and Hengtong. After exclusion, the capital expenditure of the remaining companies increased by only 0.3%, and the overall expansion of production in the industry was still quite restrained.
Currently, we recommend the main engine and the direction of departure (tower, sea cable), focusing on Daikin Heavy Industries. It is recommended to focus on: Dongfang Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Haili Wind Power, Tianshun Wind Energy, and Taisheng Wind Energy; it is expected that the gross margin of mainframe companies will improve in 2027. It is recommended to focus on: Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Ltd., and Sany Heavy Energy.
Photovoltaics: Demand is expected to pick up, optimistic about BC and the direction of no silvering
PV installations in most global markets showed a year-on-year decline in 2026. India, Africa and other emerging markets alone are still growing at a rate of 15% to 20%. Currently, the factors that determine PV installation demand are increasingly focused on “whether it can be connected to the grid, how much the electricity price is, and the IRR level of the project”. The driving effect of module price reduction on demand has weakened, and the importance of energy storage, power grid construction, and policy stability has increased. In 2027, mechanical electricity prices will rise in a central corrective manner, and demand for PV in western provinces is expected to resume growth. It is estimated that in 2027, the global PV installation scale will be about 400 GW, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 6%.
There is still excess supply. The biggest change in anti-domestic demand is the shift in governance logic from “industry self-regulation, price control and production control” to “legal constraint+cost accounting+administrative enforcement+standard elimination+market-based mergers and restructuring”
I am optimistic about leading companies in main materials and auxiliary materials, and the new technology direction of the industry (BC, no silver conversion), and recommend Aixu Co., Ltd., Jingke Energy, Longji Green Energy, Hengdian East Magnetic, etc.
Robotics: Physical AI promotes the implementation of the industrial chain, and the industry enters the mass production verification period
Physical AI made up for the last shortcoming and will enter the batch coupling period in 2026. The world model+VLA (vision-language-action) architecture is gradually becoming mainstream. Robots first “understand” physical laws in simulation and then generalize them to real scenes they have never seen before. The Optimus production line began early production, and 10,000 Optimus units will be manufactured for independent training in the short term. It is expected to be sold abroad by the end of '27. At that time, the software and hardware issues will be completely solved. Domestic chain Yushu Technology and Zhiyuan robots are leading the way in mass production, and we need to pay attention to the implementation progress of subsequent industrial scenarios. The bank expects global shipments of humanoid robots to exceed 100,000 units in '27, 700,000 units in 2030, and a CAGR of about 90% in 28-30.
Industrial catalysis is the source of sector α, and thematic investments are switched to investments in industry trends. Reviewing the robot sector market over the past five years, it was discovered that the factors that started the market include: ① low location (low congestion/clean chips), ② mass production/order event level catalytic and not overrun pricing (T-chain mass production guides/brain breakthrough/application scenario implementation), ③ mild macro environment (large market/market style/whether there is a sector drawing blood). The robot's share of the largest retracted transaction volume during the year was a record low, Tesla V3 scheduled mass production at the end of the year+AI computing power main line adjusted in late October. The Q4 catalytic calendar is intensive (V3 mass production starts, Optimus Video, GTC Berlin). It is believed that this round of the market is not over, and it is highly dependent on T-chain mass production and the degree of implementation of product power.
It is recommended to focus on Kodali, which has low options for robust robots in the main business; Zhaowei Mechatronics, Mingzhi Electric, Obi Zhongguang, etc., which are the core targets of dexterous hands and sensors; domestic chain volumes to fulfill the targets Yushu Technology, Shangwei New Materials, Minshi Group, and Daotong Technology.