Guohai Securities: China's cross-border air transport demand is expected to grow steadily in the medium to long term to maintain the industry's “recommended” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guohai Securities released a research report saying that the current global demand for cross-border air freight is still strong. Although China's cross-border air transport industry experienced the impact of the US tariff policy in 2025, the cancellation of the small package tax exemption policy, and experienced multiple adverse factors such as a sharp rise in costs brought about by high oil prices in 2026, China's civil aviation international cargo volume continued to increase steadily, reaching a year-on-year growth rate of 12%. In the medium to long term, China's demand for cross-border air cargo is expected to grow steadily, showing characteristics of total volume expansion, structural upgrading, and diversification of destinations. In summary, the bank maintains a “recommended” rating for the air cargo industry.

Guohai Securities's main views are as follows:

Consignment dimension: China's export industry structure has been upgraded, and air transport demand continues to benefit

1) The structure of China's export industry has been upgraded, and the share of exports of high value-added products continues to increase. By 2025, the share of manufactured goods in China's exports had steadily increased to 95.8%, dominating the export market. According to the General Administration of Customs, in 2025, China's exports of high-tech products reached 5.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%, which is faster than the growth rate of total exports, accounting for 19.5% of total exports.

2) With its high speed and high reliability, air freight is more suitable for transporting high-value and time-efficient products. According to IATA data, air freight accounts for less than 1% of global trade by weight, yet the value of goods accounts for nearly one-third of global trade. In 2025, goods related to artificial intelligence accounted for 53.5% of the value of air cargo, but only 7% of the air cargo volume. Products with higher unit value and higher timeliness requirements tend to choose air transportation. Looking ahead, the value of air freight to the global trade economy will continue to be reflected in short-term emergency adjustments and transportation of high value-added products.

Trade form dimension: Driven by overseas online consumption, cross-border e-commerce B2C logistics is growing steadily in the medium to long term

1) The scale and proportion of China's cross-border e-commerce exports has been steadily increasing. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from 2018 to 2025, China's cross-border e-commerce exports increased from 0.61 trillion yuan to 2.27 trillion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of +20.6%. The share of total export value of goods trade increased from 3.7% to 8.4%, and 2026H1 accounted for 7.9%. Cross-border e-commerce trade has become an important part of the commodity trade chain. In terms of export destinations, the United States, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and Canada are the top 5 countries in China's cross-border e-commerce exports in 2026H1, accounting for 41.1%, 9.4%, 8.8%, 5.9%, and 3.9% respectively, accounting for a total share of 69%.

2) Overseas e-commerce demand is expected to continue to grow, and B2C orders will lead to a structured increase in air freight. According to ECDB data, the global e-commerce market penetration rate was about 9.6% in 2018, and has increased to 16.3% by 2023; ECDB expects the global e-commerce market penetration rate to increase to 21% by 2028. In terms of growth rate, the global e-commerce market is expected to grow at 8% or more from 2024 to 2027, which is more than double the growth rate of the global retail market. The air transport model is suitable for the characteristics of light weight and high timeliness requirements for cross-border e-commerce products. According to McKinsey's forecasts, by 2027, cross-border e-commerce will contribute nearly one-third of global air freight traffic. This share was less than 10% 10 years ago. The increase is mainly due to demand for Chinese e-commerce consumer goods in Europe and the US.

Destination Market Dimensions: Stratified Analysis of Overseas Market Demand

1) European market: Demand for air transportation is growing steadily, and East Asia is the core market. According to data from the EU's official website, in 2025, the EU's air cargo and mail traffic volume reached 15 million tons, +3.8% year on year, down from +8.4% year on year in 2024. Among extraterritorial routes, East Asia is the region with the largest air traffic outside the EU. In 2024, East Asia accounted for 25.4% of the EU's total extraterritorial traffic, with a cargo volume of about 3 million tons, an increase of 12.8% over the previous year; not only is it leading in scale, but the cargo volume growth rate is also strong.

2) US market: Air traffic to China is increasing steadily, and future demand is expected to be driven by increased demand for e-commerce and semiconductor-related products. According to data from the US Department of Transportation, from 2023 to 2025, the volume of US air cargo to China increased from 1.16 million tons to 1.5 million tons, +5% over the same period in 2025; the share of total cargo volume to China increased from 9.8% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2025; China has become the largest target country for the volume of goods transported by the United States by air. Demand growth picked up in 2026 due to increased demand for semiconductors and other electronic products and recovery in cross-border e-commerce. In June 2026, demand for routes between Asia and North America was +14.7% year-on-year, achieving five consecutive months of growth.

3) Southeast Asia Market: Demand for air transportation is growing rapidly due to global supply chain restructuring. According to the ASEAN official website, ASEAN countries' air transport import and export volume to China in 2025 was US$229.4 billion, +18.3% year-on-year, of which exports/imports were +1.1%/+36.4% year-on-year respectively; in the first half of 2026, the year-on-year growth rate of air transport imports to China increased to +50.0%, showing an accelerated trend. In terms of category structure, it is highly concentrated on electrical equipment and parts, machinery and mechanical parts, etc., which may be related to the restructuring of the global supply chain.

Risk Alerts

Geopolitical risk, risk of global economic fluctuations, risk of uncertainty in international trade policies, risk of cargo demand growth falling short of expectations, risk of industry supply exceeding expectations, aviation carbon emissions/ESG risk, risk of a sharp rise in oil prices, and risk of a sharp devaluation of the RMB.