Ming Sheng (MSCI.US) excludes Strategy (MSTR.US): 850,000 BTC holdings are under pressure, and passive selling is weighing on stocks rather than Bitcoin

According to Woofun AI, Strategy (MSTR.US), the world's largest Bitcoin holding company, has been officially added to the exclusion list of Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI.US). This decision will take effect after the US stock market closes on the 30th, directly shaking its core logic of obtaining passive capital inflows through index funds.

This adjustment is due to MSCM's tightening of standards for the inclusion of non-operating enterprises, with the aim of excluding companies with similar characteristics of investment institutions. Although Strategy has cash reserves of $4.77 billion and appears to be abundant in liquidity, the market focus is still on its 85,000,364 Bitcoin holdings.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, if funds that track related indices sell Strategy shares, they are not directly forced to sell Bitcoin, but it may trigger a chain reaction. As of the 8th, its US dollar reserves were sufficient to cover about 3 years of dividends on preferred shares and interest on convertible bonds, but the board of directors has approved the sale of Bitcoin to pay dividends, interest, and supplementary reserves, up to a limit of $1.25 billion.

In fact, since the beginning of 2026, as of October 25, Strategy has raised a cumulative total of approximately $418.0 million through the sale of Bitcoin, and the additional sales limit used to replenish reserves has yet to be used.

Meanwhile, the pressure to increase holdings did not go away. In the period from the 2nd to the 8th, Strategy raised about $283.8 million through the issuance of common shares, of which $81.9 million was used to buy 1,036 bitcoins, $188.3 million was used to buy back preferred shares, and another $13.6 million was included in the US dollar cash account, showing the diversification of capital uses.

Stock price fluctuations became a key variable. J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.US) predicted in November of last year that eliminating selling pressure that could lead to about $2.8 billion would force the company to issue more shares to raise equal capital, increasing equity dilution and weakening the ability to increase holdings. This estimate corresponds to the “50% share of digital assets” proposal put forward by MSCI in October 2025 and withdrawn in January 2026. It is not about the new regulations adopted this time; MSCH did not officially announce the size of the passive capital outflow of this adjustment. The exclusion list also includes Japanese Bitcoin holding company MetaPlanet and SOL's Upexi (UPXI.US), while Sharplink (SBET.US), which holds ETH, was not removed but added to the watch list. These companies all rely on issuing shares to buy digital assets. If stock prices fall, financial stability will take priority over asset growth. MetaPlanet made it clear that if the share price is less than double the value of the Bitcoin net assets held, priority will be given to repurchasing shares and repaying debts. Upexi and Sharplink can relieve some of the pressure by staking earnings, but companies that rely too much on equity financing generally face the risk of weakening their ability to increase their holdings. If mainstream indices such as NASDAQ follow similar standards, the institutional investor base will shrink further. Strategy argues that funds that track the MSCI Index hold only 3.1% of their common stock, which has limited impact, but this ratio may still cause significant fluctuations under extreme market conditions.

Looking at the structure of the industry, the exclusion of the index marks the repricing of crypto-native enterprises by passive investment logic. As financing channels narrow, companies will shift from “unlimited increase in holdings” to “priority liquidity”, which may reshape the long-term supply curve of the Bitcoin market. This is another stress test of the market mechanism's highly leveraged crypto holding strategy following the tightening of regulations.