Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$13m and leading to a corresponding blowout in statutory losses. The loss per share was US$0.42, some 16% larger than the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ocular Therapeutix from twelve analysts is for revenues of US$91.2m in 2027. If met, it would imply a major 81% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.55 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$102.0m and losses of US$1.41 per share in 2027. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.
Check out our latest analysis for Ocular Therapeutix
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$25.73, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Ocular Therapeutix analyst has a price target of US$34.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$14.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Ocular Therapeutix's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 61% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.5% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Ocular Therapeutix to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Ocular Therapeutix. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$25.73, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Ocular Therapeutix going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Ocular Therapeutix is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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