Why Moderna Stock Dropped on Thursday
Key Points
Moderna's revenue guidance for 2026 falls short of analyst targets, meaning a sales miss may be coming.
Moderna's earnings might surprise to the upside if its cost-cutting pays off.
But costs look set to rise in 2027 and beyond.
MRNA pioneer Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) stock tumbled more than 6% in early trading Thursday before clawing its way back to a 2% loss as of 11:50 a.m. ET. The reason:
Moderna just held an "analyst day" in which it laid out financial projections through the end of this year... but didn't tell investors much about next year.
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Moderna 2026 news
Moderna forecast full-year 2026 revenue growth between 15% and 25%, significantly ahead of prior predictions for 10% growth. Profit margins are also firming up, with management saying it might grow gross margin by 10%. Simultaneously, Moderna is cutting costs to hold onto more of those profits at the operating and net profit levels.
Assuming all goes as planned, this implies 2026 revenue will come in around $2.3 billion, and that losses -- $7.26 per share in 2025 -- might shrink.
That's both bad and good news. According to data from Yahoo! Finance, Wall Street expects Moderna to post $2.4 billion in 2026 sales. (So $2.3 billion would be a sales "miss.) Conversely, the Street estimates Moderna will lose $7.37 per share this year. If margins rise as Moderna hopes, Moderna might beat that estimate.
Moderna in 2027
Which would be great news for 2026 -- but what about 2027? Here's where investors may be more concerned. Moderna says it has "accelerated cost reductions, bringing forward the previously announced 2027 cash cost framework into 2026." But Moderna's looking at "approximately $4 billion in cash costs in 2027" -- about the same level of cash burn Moderna experienced in 2023 and 2024, but up from the $2.1 billion Moderna burned in 2025. Worse, management says annual cash costs will average between $4 billion and $4.5 billion from 2027 through 2030 -- so costs are going up in the medium term.
That's not the result you want to see in the middle of a cost-cutting campaign. It may be the reason Moderna stock is sinking today.
Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Moderna. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.