On Holding AG Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a mediocre week for On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$33.07 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were CHF931m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CHF0.48, an impressive 35% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from On Holding's 31 analysts is for revenues of CHF4.18b in 2027. This reflects a sizeable 25% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 13% to CHF1.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF4.18b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.49 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for On Holding
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$43.86, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values On Holding at US$64.96 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$19.84. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that On Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 19% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 29% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while On Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$43.86, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for On Holding going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the On Holding Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
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