SpaceX Drops More Than 13% Over 30 Days: This Wall Street Pro Projects 260% Gains Within 12 Months

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) currently trades at $139.94, below the average Wall Street price target of $255.06. The difference points to roughly 82% upside.

SpaceX runs three businesses. They are launch (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Starship), Starlink connectivity, and a Super Intelligence unit built on Grok, Cursor and the COLOSSUS compute expansion. The gap stands out because third-quarter revenue reached $14.60 billion against a $13.02 billion consensus, and the company swung to $4.40 billion of net income.

Midterm Shock and AI Jitters Knock SpaceX 38% Off Its Peak

Washington did the most damage. Investors priced in regulatory hurdles for SpaceX’s data center expansion following Democrats’ takeover of Congress, with the Democratic win in Texas at the center of the worry (per Gotrade, citing Yahoo Finance and NBC News). Weak results from Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:ARM) then triggered a broad AI and chip selloff that pushed the Nasdaq into correction.

SpaceX fell harder than the market, losing 10.6% over the past month against a 2.67% slip for the S&P 500. It now sits roughly 38% below its 52-week high of $225.64, a decline well past 30%.

The worry specific to SpaceX is spending. Third-quarter capex hit $19.6 billion, fourth-quarter capex is guided to $35 billion to $40 billion, and the $60 billion Cursor deal added $1.2 billion of stock compensation in one quarter.

J.P. Morgan’s $500 Street-High Treats SpaceX as an AI Hyperscaler

Of 39 analysts, 8 rate SpaceX Strong Buy, 23 Buy, 6 Hold and 2 Sell. The biggest recent move was a restatement: J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth reaffirmed his Overweight rating and Street-high $500 target after third-quarter results, suggesting roughly 257% upside.

His thesis rests on Super Intelligence revenue, which rose 830% year over year to $7.6 billion, more than half of quarterly sales. The model assumes compute scales toward management’s 13 GW target. That starts from 1.7 GW of COLOSSUS II nameplate capacity, then applies roughly 21x to a 2028 GAAP EPS estimate of $24.41. That requires revenue scaling past $254 billion, supported by management data showing new GPU deployments pay back in under a year. The data center expansion must be powered and cooled. We pulled seven of those suppliers into a free AI infrastructure report.

Starlink adds a second leg. Consumer subscribers reached 13.6 million, monthly ARPU rose 5% sequentially to $69, and the 800 MHz spectrum deal for Starlink Mobile should close in the first half of 2027.

A 12-month target built on 2028 earnings asks investors to pay now for compute still under construction. Price targets are estimates, with no guarantee attached.

SpaceX Fell Alone While Space Peers Held Steady

SpaceX sold off largely by itself. Its closest US-listed peers barely moved over the same month.

Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) slipped 0.23% over the past month and jumped 39.31% in the past week after a quarter that produced a record $3.57 billion backlog. At $64.07 against a $98.25 average target, implied upside is about 53%. Of 22 analysts, 5 rate it Strong Buy, 13 Buy and 4 Hold, so Wall Street sees less upside there than at SpaceX.

Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) dipped 1.31% over the month but is up 168.69% year to date. Its $48 target sits about 4% above the $46.12 price because Rocket Lab’s pending acquisition supports the stock. Of 8 analysts, 1 rates it Strong Buy, 3 Buy and 4 Hold.

SpaceX carries the biggest projected gain among these stocks, which points to a discount rooted in its own political and spending exposure.

SpaceX Lags a Rising S&P 500 Since Its Debut

SpaceX currently trades at $139.94, with a $1.844 trillion market value and roughly 45x forward earnings. Its 39 analysts carry an average target of $255.06, about 82% above the current price.

Shares are down 10.6% over the past month and 13.05% since their first trading session, though they rebounded 13.2% over the past week. The S&P 500 is up 11.05% year to date.

SpaceX’s Upside Hinges on How Fast Compute Pays Back

The bull case strengthens if Super Intelligence revenue keeps growing and the under-one-year GPU payback turns the capex ramp into visible cash flow. A Starlink Mobile launch and steady Starship progress would put the $255.06 consensus within reach.

The bear case gains weight if the new congressional majority slows data center buildouts or Cursor-related stock compensation keeps reducing earnings. A 45x forward multiple has plenty of room to compress, and the $500 call depends on 2028 numbers.

The outlook leans cautiously bullish. The business is outgrowing its share price, and the selloff traced mostly to politics and sector sentiment, and I’d supports expectations to the consensus target and treat $500 as the upside scenario.