SpaceX Stock Will Rally If It Achieves One or More of These Potential Breakthroughs

I've written before about why I believe SpaceX (SPCX) stock is unlikely to be greatly boosted in the foreseeable future by its various initiatives. Why may that be the case? To examine SpaceX a bit closer, let's first outline a few hypothetical accomplishments that I think could significantly lift the stock, if CEO Elon Musk and the firm can attain them. From there, we can then detail why the company's latest project to hit the headlines — a data center paired with a gas plant — probably won't prove to be a game changer for SPCX stock anytime soon. Let's take a closer look.

These Potential Milestones Would Be Positive Catalysts for SpaceX

What potential milestones do I see as possible boons for SPCX stock? Well, at the top of my list is a huge improvement in SpaceX's artificial intelligence (AI) agent, Grok.

At this point, according to multiple sources, Grok is superior to Anthropic's (ANT) Claude when it comes to extracting news and commentary from the company's social media platform, X, while some also say that Grok is more entertaining. But when it comes to in-depth research, analysis, writing, and programming, Claude is reportedly meaningfully superior.

Of course, the areas in which Claude excels are far more important to most companies than those in which Grok has an edge. So, if Grok is able to become as capable as Claude — and still charge less than Anthropic — SPCX stock could soar. That's because companies are willing to spend a great deal on AI models that can significantly reduce labor costs.

Next on the list are SpaceX's potential data centers in space. If Musk can win the race to deploy space-based data centers, and if these systems are meaningfully cheaper than terrestrial facilities, it could cause SpaceX stock to explode upward. That's because the firm would be able to take market share away from more traditional, land-based data centers. Moreover, if SpaceX is able to charge less than its competitors for its space-based data centers while still generating sizable gross margins, its bottom line could go through the roof.

SpaceX's top and bottom lines could also jump as it improves its direct-to-cell service. If SpaceX can make Starlink meaningfully superior or cheaper than the competition, the business could boom as it recruits more retail customers and partners with telecom companies.

Finally, quantum computing looks like the next technology frontier, angled at solving a variety of highly complex problems that a wide array of sectors experience. While SpaceX does not have any reported quantum computing initiatives, if the innovation-focused firm eventually does pursue a quantum offering, shares could soar higher.

Why SpaceX's Latest Initiative May Not Move the Needle

Hypotheticals aside, there is one more immediate project in SpaceX's crosshairs right now. Reportedly, SpaceX is looking to launch a natural gas power plant and supercomputing facility, with the gas plant aimed at providing electricity for the data center. This undertaking is expected to cost $24 billion in its first phase.

In a previous column on SPCX stock, I noted that SpaceX's data centers appear to take more than a year to deliver a return on investment, while future profitability is likely to be hindered by the need to periodically buy more of Nvidia's (NVDA) expensive AI chips. Providing the data center with its own power supply should reduce the facility's electricity costs, but the strategy won't solve the costly problem of paying for its chips and acquiring new ones every one to three years. Meanwhile, although SpaceX is building Terafab, the chip factory may not be ready to produce semiconductors for a few years, with volume production expected in late 2028. The plant may also have debilitating execution issues, while its chips could still cost SpaceX large amounts.

All told, this news isn't exactly the positive catalyst I expect to boost SPCX stock.

On the date of publication, Larry Ramer did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.