Earnings Miss: Rigaku Holdings Corporation Missed EPS By 43% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Rigaku Holdings Corporation (TSE:268A), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥21b revenue coming in 7.8% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥3.75 missed the mark badly, arriving some 43% below what was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Rigaku Holdings after the latest results.
Following the latest results, Rigaku Holdings' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥116.8b in 2027. This would be a major 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 75% to JP¥74.38. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥116.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥74.80 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
Check out our latest analysis for Rigaku Holdings
The consensus price target fell 8.3% to JP¥2,140, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Rigaku Holdings at JP¥2,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,300. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Rigaku Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Rigaku Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 18% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.1% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Rigaku Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Rigaku Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Rigaku Holdings that we have uncovered.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.