Charter Communications (CHTR) has moved into the spotlight after unveiling a US$2b cost-cutting plan, announced alongside third quarter results that paired higher sales with a swing from profit to a sizeable loss.
Charter Communications’ recent announcements have arrived during a sharp bounce in the shares, with a 1 month share price return of 31.62% and a 7 day share price return of 17.21%. Yet the stock remains under pressure after a year to date share price decline of 33.87% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 31.86%, pointing to short term momentum against a much weaker multi year record.
See how Charter Communications compares with other media and broadband companies under pressure by reviewing a curated set of 32 high quality undervalued stocks.
Charter Communications has just bounced hard after heavy longer term damage, which leaves a blunt question for anyone circling the stock. Does the recent rally already reflect the risks, or is the balance of reward still tilted toward buyers when you run the valuation numbers next?
Charter Communications closed at $138.39, while the most followed narrative on Simply Wall St pegs fair value at $294.71. This frames the recent rebound as modest against that reference point, according to david_6nroa, an investor in the Simply Wall St Community who wrote the narrative.
CHTR closed Q-2 with 119mm shares. At the current price of $124 per share, that translates to a mkt. cap of roughly 14.7B. Additionally, the FMV of their bond debt is approximately 10B less than the principal. Last Q CHTR bought bonds and booked a 243mm gain, while decreasing debt by approximately 1B. With the accurate share count and the embedded value in the FMV of the debt, my estimate of EV is roughly 95B, not the widely reported estimates of 111-113B.
See why 6 investors see Charter Communications as 53% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $294.71 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, the Charter Communications story can break if network upgrade savings disappoint or if free cash flow is used less efficiently than this narrative assumes.
Find out about the key risks to this Charter Communications narrative.
Mixed signals around Charter Communications so far. If you want to move fast and judge the balance of risk and potential reward for yourself, start with the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
If you want a broader watchlist than just Charter Communications, use the Simply Wall St screener tools to spot opportunities that match how you like to invest.
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