Swvl Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:SWVL) Shares May Have Slumped 34% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Swvl Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ:SWVL) shares are down a considerable 34% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 72% share price decline.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think Swvl Holdings' price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.9x is worth a mention when the median P/S in the United States' Transportation industry is similar at about 1.1x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
See our latest analysis for Swvl Holdings
What Does Swvl Holdings' Recent Performance Look Like?
As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Swvl Holdings over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Swvl Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Swvl Holdings' to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 2.4%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 44% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 7.9% shows it's an unpleasant look.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Swvl Holdings' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.
What We Can Learn From Swvl Holdings' P/S?
With its share price dropping off a cliff, the P/S for Swvl Holdings looks to be in line with the rest of the Transportation industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our look at Swvl Holdings revealed its shrinking revenues over the medium-term haven't impacted the P/S as much as we anticipated, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Swvl Holdings that you should be aware of.
Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.