General: Residential trading in Hong Kong is expected to continue to rise in 2026, prices will stabilize, and the pressure to adjust industrial and commercial properties will not abate
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Pujin Group published the “Hong Kong Property Market Review: Sitting 2025 • Looking 2026” report stating that looking ahead to 2026, local residential property prices in Hong Kong are expected to remain stable, and some popular regions may record slight increases. As the number of non-local students and professionals continues to increase, the residential rental market is expected to remain strong, and rents are expected to be close to historic highs.
As the global political and economic situation continues to be uncertain, in 2025, the Hong Kong residential property market benefited from policy adjustments, a low interest rate environment and continued entry of mainland buyers. Turnover increased markedly. Property prices and rents also recorded increases, and market performance was steady. In comparison, the non-residential property sector continues to face adjustment pressure, and the pace of recovery is slow. Pujin expects the residential market to remain stable in 2026, with slight increases in some sectors, while non-residential properties will still need time to absorb supply and wait for demand to pick up.
Thanks to the increase in the stamp duty threshold to HK$4 million, the low interest rate environment and various policies to attract talents, the Hong Kong residential property market picked up significantly in 2025, with an annual turnover of nearly 57,000 transactions, an increase of about 7.3% over the previous year. Among them, 18,800 first-hand and 381,000 second-hand residential units were sold respectively, reflecting the gradual release of purchasing power in the market. Residential property transactions below HK$4 million have increased significantly. Mainland buyers account for more than 20% of total residential transactions, and up to 30% for some new listings.
In terms of industrial and commercial properties, the report indicates that the overall performance of the non-residential property market was weak in 2025. Prices for commercial buildings, office buildings and industrial buildings fell by about 8.8%, 11.1% and 12.3%, respectively, and rents also fell at the same time. Prices for grade A, grade B and grade C commercial buildings were reduced by about 9.9%, 15.3% and 11.3% respectively, and the market vacancy rate continued to be high. Although demand for financial and professional services has stabilized rents for high-quality office buildings in some core areas, rents in non-core regions are still under pressure. The industrial building and warehouse market was affected by global trade uncertainty and falling local logistics demand, and rents fell by about 4.2% in the first ten months of 2025. The Hong Kong Government is actively optimizing industrial building reconstruction and renovation measures to release industrial land in urban areas, but Pu Jin believes that the industrial building market will take time to adjust in the short term.
In terms of stores, overall rents fell by about 4% in the first ten months of 2025, and the vacancy rate of stores in the core area remained stable. The next recovery in visitors is expected to drive revenue growth in the retail and restaurant industry, but rents in non-core areas will continue to be affected by changes in consumption patterns.
The report also points out that the Hong Kong Government is actively “scavenging talents” and increasing the number of non-local tertiary students, which will help to rejuvenate the population structure, ease the aging population, and support the development of the real estate and consumer markets in the long term. The redevelopment of the northern metropolitan area and urban areas will become a future development priority. The authorities are actively promoting multi-district revitalization, transportation infrastructure and industrial upgrading to further enhance land and property values.