Zhongtai Securities: First Deposit to Bilibili-W (09626) “Increased” Rating Content and Community Operation Two-wheel Drive
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that Bilibili W (09626) is expected to achieve total revenue of 299.60/326.20/35.321 billion yuan in 25-27, +12%/+9%/+8% year-on-year; realized adjusted net profit of 22.57/32.56/4.325 billion yuan, +44%/+33% over the same period in 26/27. Comparable companies' 25-year dynamic PE average is 26x. The company's commercialization is accelerating. Furthermore, AI is expected to further improve the efficiency of content creation and diversify commercialization methods, and will have a profound impact on the company's advertising and game business. It has covered the company's advertising and game business for the first time, giving it an “increase in weight” rating.
The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:
1. Bilibili: Domestic IP ecosystem platform, two-wheel drive for content and community operation
As a leading video community in China, Bilibili (Bilibili, Station B) has become an important player in the field of IP derivatives due to its unique operating model. By the end of 2024, the company had operated nearly 200 owned and authorized IPs, including Guochang, comics, etc. Since launching the official derivatives brand in 2020, the company has relied on its high-stickiness community and content ecosystem advantages, combined with “member purchase” e-commerce channels, gradually built a derivatives development model with “IP incubation and content empowerment” as the core, and laid out segmented brands such as mobile phones and cute boxes to continuously promote IP commercial value enhancement and cross-border “breaking circles”.
2. Business highlights: Empowered by AI marketing, advertising volume and price have risen sharply, and games are the icing on the cake
(1) AI: Peanut AI helps content production and optimizes delivery to promote eCPM. On the one hand, AI helps improve the quality and efficiency of content production through AIGC, thereby increasing traffic (DAU and VV per capita). In the fourth quarter of 2025, the AIGC tool “Peanut” tested by Station B was officially launched and positioned as a video creation tool. AI not only lowers the threshold for professional creation, allows non-professionals to participate in content creation, but also greatly enriches the diversity and innovation of content supply. On the other hand, it leverages eCPM improvement through accurate delivery. In 2025, the commercialization of Station B ushered in an upgrade. The InsightAgent intelligent analysis system is fully integrated into the BiliZhiguang, BiliBida, and Fireworks platforms to provide exclusive AI solutions for different marketing scenarios through AI large model capabilities.
(2) Advertising: The three major products reshape marketing paths, and high-quality content boosts traffic growth. Station B advertising can be divided into three major styles of play: the first is the fireworks sale+take-off promotion model; the second is advertising with OCPx effects; and the third is brand advertising. In 2024/the first half of 2025, Bilibili's advertising business revenue increased 27.7%/20% to 82.44 billion yuan, respectively. In 3Q25, Bilibili's DAU reached 117 million people, an increase of 9%. DAU accounted for 31% of MAU; the average daily usage time was 112 minutes, an increase of 6%. Meanwhile, at present, Station B is still restraining advertising commercialization. Currently, its ad load rate is only 5-8%, and there is still plenty of room for commercialization.
(3) Games: The long-term operation of old games, and the increase in the contribution of new games. Under the leadership of “Three Kingdoms: Designing the World”, Changqing Second Tour, such as “FGO” and “Blue Line,” also provided a stable revenue base for Station B's game business. 25H1, Station B's gaming business achieved revenue of 3.3 billion yuan, an increase of 68% over the same period. “Escape from Duck Cove” was well received, and the new game's differentiated positioning is expected to contribute to the number of new additions.
Risk warning: User growth falls short of expectations, game traffic falls short of expectations, policy and compliance risks, measurement deviations, and the risk of untimely research updates.