CITIC Securities: What do you think of the digital yuan 2.0 upgrade?
The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the digital yuan is being upgraded from “central bank debt type” 1.0, which replaces cash, to a “deposit currency type” 2.0 incorporated into the commercial bank debt system. Its account can accrue interest and be paid, essentially becoming a general deposit. This institutional adjustment helps to consolidate bank debt stability, strengthen the transmission efficiency of monetary policy under the framework of reserves and interest rates, and at the same time significantly enhance endogenous incentives for commercial banks to promote the digital yuan. Judging from the impact of the industry, the digital yuan is expected to become an important tool for linking public and retail, and to some extent replace third-party platforms in the payment process. It is expected that in the future, the focus of banks' digital yuan business development will shift from qualification to competency. Banks need to speed up the transition from account operations to scenario-based specialized services to seize opportunities to increase the penetration rate of digital yuan.
CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:
Matters:
According to the Financial Times, on December 29, the People's Bank of China issued the “Action Plan on Further Strengthening the Digital RMB Management Service System and Related Financial Infrastructure Construction” (hereinafter referred to as the “Action Plan”). The next-generation digital yuan measurement framework, management system, operation mechanism and ecosystem will be officially implemented on January 1, 2026. The plan is further optimized on the basis of the original “central bank-commercial institution” two-tier operating system: the top-level central bank side is responsible for formulating business rules and technical standards, and undertakes the planning, construction and operation of relevant infrastructure; the second-tier operating institution (commercial bank) is responsible for opening digital yuan wallets for individuals and units, undertakes responsibility for customer service, scenario development and technical maintenance, and is directly responsible for the security, reliability, continuity, and “three reverse” (anti-money laundering, anti-terrorist financing, anti-tax evasion) work. At the same time, it is clear that digital renminbi wallet balances are included in the commercial bank debt category and interest is accrued, the dominant power of the banking system is strengthened, and banks are encouraged to increase user stickiness through asset liability management.
The digital yuan was upgraded from a “cash type” to a “deposit currency type.”
1) e-CNY's core positioning has fundamentally changed. From the cash type 1.0 stage, which was previously positioned as the central bank's debt/M0 replacement, to the bank debt/deposit currency type 2.0 stage, digital yuan accounts are essentially integrated into the commercial bank debt system, can accrue interest and are subject to deposit reserves, and are part of the bank's general deposit.
2) This upgrade is a global CBDC innovation, which helps enhance the effectiveness of internationalization. This adjustment is the first time in the world that the institutional integration of digital currency and commercial bank deposit systems led by central banks has strong demonstration, reference and innovative significance for overseas central banks (especially mBridge partners), and is expected to further promote scenarios such as cross-border trade applications.
It helps to consolidate bank debt stability and improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy.
1) Consolidate bank debt stability. After the current digital yuan was converted to deposit currency, the digital yuan returned to bank debt system management, which helped to consolidate bank debt stability.
2) Improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy. Deposit-type digital yuan can be incorporated into reserves and interest rate regulation frameworks, which is more conducive to the transmission efficiency of policy tools from central banks to commercial banks and to the real economy.
3) Improve promotion incentives for commercial banks. Previously, banks were mainly responsible for wallet operations, and commercialization was insufficient, and promotion momentum was limited; under the 2.0 framework, digital yuan became the bank's core liability, and banks' willingness to promote it increased.
The advantages of bank payment services are expected to be strengthened.
1) The digital yuan may become an important trigger for public-retail linkages. On the public side, banks can promote applications such as enterprise account opening, fund settlement, payment and payroll payment around digital yuan accounts and their blockchain technology applications to enhance corporate customer stickiness; on the retail side, through scenarios such as payroll payment, individual customers can directly use digital yuan accounts for savings, financial management, and payments, forming a closed loop of “public-retail” collaboration.
2) The payment process has certain alternative effects and convenience advantages to third-party platforms. Although the digital yuan has turned into bank debt, the bottom layer is still the central bank-led payment infrastructure. It has achieved unconditional access to mainstream Internet platforms in the early stages, and it is expected that it will maintain the strong nature of central bank infrastructure in the future. Furthermore, at present, mobile payment institutions have yet to break through the ecological wall, and the overall advantages of digital yuan are even more obvious.
Capacity building is still the key, and banks need to move from “account operations” to “scenario services.”
1) The number of operating institutions may increase steadily. Currently, there are 10 digital yuan operators (including 8 Chinese stock banks). According to Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng's previous statement at the 2025 Financial Street Forum (October 27, 2025), “Supporting more commercial banks to become digital yuan business operators”, there is room for future expansion, and the focus of competition may gradually shift from licenses to service capabilities.
2) Digital yuan has new technology application scenarios. This time, it was clarified that digital yuan will be based on accounts and compatible with distributed ledger technology to achieve compatibility between the two models; based on the new technology, it can be deeply integrated with various scenarios such as consumer subsidies, financial payments, supply chain finance, and inclusive finance to place higher demands on banking system construction, product design, and specialized service teams. Therefore, service capabilities will become an important gripper for interbank competition for digital RMB funds.
Development outlook: There is still huge room for improvement in the digital yuan penetration rate.
1) There is plenty of room for domestic account opening and transaction amounts. According to the central bank's “Overall Status of Payment System Operation in the Third Quarter of 2025”, as of the end of September 2025, a total of 15.395 billion bank accounts and 119 million bank accounts were opened nationwide. According to the central bank's latest data, as of the end of November 2025, only 230 million personal wallets and 18.84 million unit wallets were opened; according to the central payment system operation data, 2024Q4-2025Q3 and online clearing platforms processed 584.76 trillion yuan. In contrast, as of the end of November 2025, the cumulative amount of digital yuan transactions was The amount was only 16.7 trillion yuan.
2) The internationalization of RMB has led to an increase in e-CNY usage. In the cross-border sector, central bank payment system operation data revealed that 2024Q4-2025Q3 and CIPS handled the cross-border RMB business reached 178.47 trillion yuan, while the cumulative amount of the multilateral central bank digital currency bridge (mBridge) was RMB 387.2 billion. With the internationalization of the RMB and the strengthening of banking promotion, considering that the digital yuan itself has technical advantages in the cross-border field, it is expected to lead to an increase in the scale of transactions.
Risk factors:
The quality of bank assets deteriorated beyond expectations.