Guosheng Securities: To Jitu Express - W (01519) “buy” rating, reasonable valuation of HK$12.90

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that the increase in the scale of the Jitu Express-W (01519) business brought about by e-commerce dividends in Southeast Asia and new markets, and the improvement in China's profitability will jointly drive the company's high performance in the future. The bank predicts that the adjusted net profit of GeTu Express in 2025-2027 will be US$3.71/5.71/764 million, respectively, up 85.2%/54.0%/33.8% year-on-year, respectively, corresponding to the adjusted EPS of 0.040/0.061/0.083 per share, respectively. Considering that the company's high growth in the Southeast Asian market and Latin America and the Middle East market should enjoy a valuation premium, the bank gave the company a 26-year target P/E27x, combined with the company's 2026 adjusted EPS forecast of 0.061 US dollars/share, corresponding to a reasonable valuation of HK$12.90, and gave it a “buy” rating.

Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:

The dark horse of express delivery with a global layout, and the three regions drive high growth together

Jitu Express is a global express delivery company that emerged from Southeast Asia and successfully expanded to China, Latin America, and the Middle East. The express delivery network covers 13 countries. Currently, the core investment logic is that the company is simultaneously enjoying the triple dividends of the rise of e-commerce and social media platforms in Southeast Asia, profit restoration and standard output under China's “anti-internal volume”, and explosive growth in e-commerce in new markets.

Southeast Asia: The ballast stone for profit, taking advantage of social e-commerce

Southeast Asia is the starting market and profit “ballast stone” of the company, and its market share has steadily ranked first in the industry. In 2025, the company successfully grasped the strategic opportunity of TikTokShop's explosive growth in Southeast Asia, and undertook its mainstream volume through in-depth cooperation, driving a continuous increase in market share to 32.8% (2025H1). Southeast Asia's package volume increased 65% year over year in the first three quarters of 2025, and adjusted EBIT increased 74% year over year in the first half of 2025. Through continuous cost optimization and operational experience, while gaining market share while maintaining healthy profitability, the Southeast Asian market is expected to maintain a high growth rate over the next 5 years and contribute to major profit increases.

China: basic scale market, overseas standard export base

The Chinese market accounts for about 75% of the company's package volume. The company's advanced and mature express delivery technology and experience in China is being systematized and empowered to Southeast Asia and new markets to help overseas countries obtain technical and experiential advantages, continuously reduce costs, and enhance the synergy between overseas competitiveness and global regional advantages. Furthermore, with the promotion of “anti-domestic sales” in China's express delivery industry in the second half of the year and the implementation of price increases in many places, express ticket revenue has clearly rebounded, and profits in China are expected to improve.

New market: the blue ocean of card slots has unlimited potential

The total GDP and per capita average of the new markets in Latin America and the Middle East is higher than in Southeast Asia, but e-commerce penetration is low and development potential is huge. The e-commerce market is growing at an accelerated pace in 2025. With its mature regional agency model and global network capabilities, the company has cooperated with leading platforms or emerging platforms such as Meikeduo and TikTok Shop to steadily increase its share in the market where the pattern is still scattered. In the first three quarters of 2025, the volume of packages in the new market increased 31% year on year; in the first half of 2025, the new market achieved a correction in adjusted EBITDA for the first time, and operations are on the right track; with rapid growth in business volume, it is expected that adjusted EBIT will turn loss into profit by 2025. In the medium to long term, the new market is gradually becoming an important engine for the company's growth.