Guoxin Securities: Focus on the service consumption layout and be optimistic about segmentation and cycle improvement in the first year
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that boosting domestic demand in 2026 has become a top priority in economic development. Among them, Chinese residents' service consumption has great potential for improvement compared to overseas, and is expected to become the country's new gripper based on further optimization of commodity consumption subsidies. Money, time, and supply-side constraints all provide a good focus for the policy. The sector's capital allocation is at a historically low level, and the overall valuation has reflected many pessimistic expectations. The bank suggests focusing on the first year of service consumption in 2026, along with the gradual transmission of policies to residents' income expectations, etc., and lay out the two main lines of inflation forecast repair and segmentation of the economy on a full-year level: a new cycle of high-end recovery and gradually increasing duty-free policies, inflection point of hotel inflection point with supply and demand rebalancing, and the performance of restaurants and restaurants with improved CPI expectations; 2) The main segment trend direction: public examination and vocational education, banking development under the direction of stable employment Tea with continuous product iteration and innovation, iteration of new technology and AI Application direction.
Guoxin Securities's main views are as follows:
Section review
1) Overall moderate recovery, structural sentiment. The consumer market recovered moderately. In January-November, the growth rate of service consumption > growth rate of commodity consumption > growth rate of food consumption, and the share of service consumption gradually increased. 2) Triple changes in demand, policy, and technology. First, consumption behavior is becoming more rational. The younger customer base focuses on emotional satisfaction with experiential consumption, driving growth in segments such as travel, concert events, Guochao culture, and trendy entertainment; B-side business demand is still bottoming out. Second, policy factors and global layout influence enterprise decision-making and development. Some industry regulations and restrictions accelerate market reshuffle and transformation of enterprises such as high-end restaurants. Hainan's customs clearance operation has created a larger open platform to attract the return of consumption. Going overseas is still one of the important new growth curves. The third is the acceleration of technological iteration and business model restructuring. The development of AI+ education, AI+ manpower, etc. has improved efficiency and experience, and the takeout war has spawned upstream brand and platform share restructuring under the rapid penetration of instant retail.
Market review: The overall performance of the social service sector from the beginning of the year to date, sector fund holdings have fallen back to an all-time low, and the bottom has steadily outperformed the benchmark since Q4
Since this year, the overall social services sector has risen by 14.55%, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen's 3003.81 pct; with the country's gradual introduction of policies to promote consumption, some leading players are expected to see a steady improvement, compounded by the improvement in liquidity in their own markets. The 25Q4 sector rose 7.81%, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen by 3007.45 pct. The segment is dominated by structural market conditions. Looking at the breakdown, strong alpha tea hotel leaders and strong employment-oriented leaders have led the way since the beginning of the year. Since Q4, the bottom has been cyclically switched to tax exemption, and leading hotel leaders have led the way. At the end of the 2025Q3, Guoxin's social service sector's heavy-duty fund holdings ratio was 0.29%, down 0.10pct from 25Q2, which is at an all-time low.
Subsector: Performance differentiation under demand stratification and supply iteration. Subsequent service consumption policies and CPI trends are key variables
Tax exemption: With strong policies, the implementation of supply-side core hub agreements, and the strengthening of leading supply chains, domestic tax exemptions are expected to gradually meet high-end demand beta. The policy-driven consumer return narrative and domestic goods platform construction are expected to help a new cycle and rise in valuation.
Hotels: Focus on future procyclical opportunities for improving the supply and demand pattern. Steady growth in demand-side leisure tourism combined with a boost in service consumption policies, the decline in the business travel demand base is gradually bottoming out. The steepest stage of supply recovery has passed, and the leading business strategy is shifting from OCC priority to optimal RevPAR to drive price stability.
Scenic spots: The calendar effect on scenic spot transactions is remarkable. Focus on the direction of blessings, cruise ships, etc. that conform to age structure trends and have endogenous growth, and simultaneously focus on local asset integration.
OTA: As a travel ETF, it is expected to directly benefit from service consumption policy incentives. The steady rise in profit margins under a stable industry pattern is still the main theme, focusing on the progress and slowing down of leading overseas investments.
Restaurant chain: Along with the gradual decline in takeout subsidies, leading companies are actively expanding new product lines such as the mutual penetration of milk tea and coffee, and the new brand curve to cope with base pressure; leading catering revenue is disrupted by various factors such as price cuts, high-end catering policies, and public opinion on prepared dishes, etc., and the growth rate is stable. If CPI transmission picks up, the platform and brand are expected to rebound from the bottom.
Education: Seizing “employment orientation” and AI commercialization, the boom in the public examination recruitment and vocational education and training circuit is expected to continue, which is strongly employment-oriented, and relatively lagging behind due to demographic impact, and keep an eye on the iteration of AI applications in the industry.
Human service: Manpower is a weather vane focusing on economic recovery, improving labor sentiment on the enterprise side and empowering AI technology.
Risk warning: systemic risks such as macro and epidemic; policy risks; lower than expected acquisitions, risk of shareholder holdings reduction, changes in market funding style, etc.